Good Morning Investors!!! Welcome back from the long weekend! Markets are starting the week with a touch of AI nerves, while the 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.0%, which keeps the “how much should we pay for earnings” math front and center. On the company front, Medtronic just reported, Palo Alto Networks reports after the close, and Masimo is jumping after Danaher announced it will acquire the company for $180 per share in cash. The next big gut-check is tomorrow, with fresh housing and durable goods data at 8:30 AM ET and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (Fed rate-setting group) minutes at 2:00 PM ET. We will also zoom in on athletic apparel and footwear, because promos and pricing are a sneaky-good lie detector for the consumer.
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Key Market Drivers
Tech nerves keep futures on edge: S&P 500 futures were down 0.46% at 6,819 and Nasdaq futures were off 0.5% this morning, with markets reopening after Friday’s close and Monday’s holiday. Last week’s Nasdaq slide of 2.1% still hangs around, so the open looks like a cautious toe-dip. The driver is the artificial intelligence (AI) disruption theme, a fear that new tools can dent sales and margins for some software firms. That can lower valuation, meaning the price paid for earnings, and it often favors boring cash-makers; watch Palo Alto Networks after the close for hints on tech budgets. The 10-year yield softens before Fed minutes: The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to about 4.03% this morning, down roughly 2.5 basis points (1 basis point = 1/100th of a percent) from the prior close. It is not a huge swing, but when rates move, they change the math for stocks and mortgages almost immediately. The next catalyst is the Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes on Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET, a peek at how worried officials are about inflation. When yields dip, the math looks better for housing and growth stocks, but it can also mean investors expect slower growth; watch if the 10-year holds above 4.0%. 
Brent Crude Oil, Feb 17, 2026
Oil wrestles with diplomacy and supply risk: Brent crude slipped 0.86% to almost $68.80 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (U.S. oil benchmark) was near $64. Energy traders are watching diplomatic headlines out of Geneva, and the market is trying to decide if the next move is a supply scare or a supply sigh. Iran drills near the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran nuclear talks tug prices both ways, because a deal can add supply while a flare-up can threaten shipping. That matters for inflation and margins, so it can ripple into energy stocks and gasoline; the next check is headlines from Geneva and whether Brent stays below $70. Yen climbs after Japan GDP misses, Europe stays cautious: Japan’s Nikkei fell about 0.4% and the yen strengthened roughly 0.25% versus the dollar after gross domestic product grew just 0.2% annualized in Q4, well below a 1.6% forecast. Holiday-thin Asia trading spilled into Europe, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.35%. A firmer yen can pinch Japanese exporters’ profits when foreign sales get translated back home, and it can nudge global investors to dial down risk when they are already skittish on tech. Keep an eye on the yen holding its gains and whether U.S. futures stabilize by the opening bell. |
TUE Feb 17, 2026 — 8:30 AM ET
Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Feb): Quick pulse on New York factory activity, a “soft data” read that can still move rates when it surprises.
TUE Feb 17, 2026 — 10:00 AM ET
National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Builder mood check for February, with housing still very rate-sensitive.
TUE Feb 17, 2026 — 12:45 PM ET and 2:30 PM ET
Federal Reserve speakers: Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr (12:45) and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (2:30) are on the mic.
TUE Feb 17, 2026 | After Close
Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Palo Alto Networks reports with a scheduled 4:30 PM ET webcast.
WED Feb 18, 2026 — 8:30 AM ET
Housing Starts and Building Permits (Nov and Dec) plus Durable Goods (Dec): Housing Starts and Building Permits (Dec 2025) plus Durable Goods Orders (Dec 2025): A busy data drop that blends housing activity with big-ticket orders, with some releases still catching up.
Thoughts from InvestorsGrow:
If you only circle two time slots, make it Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET and 2:00 PM ET. The morning data is the “real economy” stuff: homes getting built and big items getting ordered. Strong numbers can push Treasury yields (bond interest rates) up, which often weighs on pricey growth stocks, while weak numbers can do the opposite but raise growth worries.
Today’s Empire survey and the NAHB HMI are more like mood rings, but mood can still matter. If both stay soft, it hints the rate-sensitive parts of the economy are still feeling the squeeze. If they perk up, it can revive the “soft landing” story and lift cyclical groups like industrials and homebuilders.
Then comes the main event: the FOMC minutes. Investors will read between the lines for how uneasy the Fed is about inflation versus jobs, and how high the bar is for the next move. Keep an eye on whether officials sound confident, or cautious, because markets tend to trade the tone as much as the policy.
Athletic Apparel and Footwear
Athletic apparel and footwear sits where consumer moods meet fashion cycles. One quick read is the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY), part of SPDR’s (sector ETF lineup), which is about flat (up ~2.5%) over the past year. That is a reminder that “wants” can cool faster than “needs.”
The big driver right now is pricing. When shoppers wait for deals, brands lean on markdowns, and profits can shrink even if sales are steady. Add currency swings and tariffs, and global results can look great in one place and rough in another. The next tell is whether spring launches sell at full price, or slide into promos.
Under Armour (UAA):
Under Armour makes performance apparel and shoes. It is smaller than the giants, so product hits and misses show up fast in the numbers. In its latest quarter, revenue fell 5% to $1.33 billion, with North America down 10% and footwear down 12%.
Deckers (DECK):
Deckers owns HOKA (running) and UGG (comfort footwear). That mix helps when one trend fades and the other stays hot. Last quarter, net sales rose 7.1% to $1.958 billion, led by HOKA up 18.5% to $628.9 million.
Adidas (ADDYY):
Adidas is a global sportswear leader with deep roots in soccer. It can benefit when one region slows but another picks up, although currency still matters. The company said 2025 sales hit a record 24.8 billion euros and it plans up to a 1 billion euro share buyback starting in February, with full results due March 4.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Watch the monthly jobs report, because steady hiring and wage growth tend to support premium shoes and gear. Two key performance indicators (KPIs) (metrics analysts track) are inventory levels and gross margin, since rising inventory often leads to more discounts and thinner profit. The red flag is inventory growing faster than sales, because it can force bigger markdowns. If hiring cools while inventories climb, expect more promos and jumpier stocks.
Masimo (MASI)
Masimo (MASI) sells patient-monitoring sensors, like pulse oximeters that track oxygen. It is the smoke alarm in a hospital room: it rings when something is off.
Masimo was up about 34% in premarket trading after Danaher announced it will acquire the company for $180 per share in cash (about $9.9 billion including debt), about a 40% premium to Masimo’s $130.15 close last Friday.
Zooming out, the stock is down about 28% over the past year and down more than 57% from its peak in November 2021. That slide says investors have been cautious, even though the products are common in hospitals.
The “why” is a mix of drama and competition. Masimo has battled Apple over blood‑oxygen tech and spent time backing out of a consumer-audio detour, which shook trust. In hospital monitoring, it competes with giants like Philips and GE HealthCare, and Danaher’s market value is around $150 billion versus Masimo near $7 billion.
The number investors will keep circling is $180, because it is the finish line if the deal closes and a floor that can disappear if it does not. The price is also about 18 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) expected for 2027, so people will argue about value.
Next up, watch the expected closing timeline (second half of 2026) and any early signals on regulatory review. If the path looks smooth, then MASI tends to trade closer to the offer; if delays or pushback show up, the discount can widen fast.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
This is a “big buyer, smaller target” play on steadier hospital demand. The upside is a clear cash offer and better execution under a larger owner. The risks are deal friction, tighter hospital budgets, or fresh legal headlines. Watch the gap between MASI and $180, because a wider gap is the market getting nervous.
