Good Morning Investors!!! Today’s big story is the market listening closely to the Federal Reserve (Fed) (U.S. central bank) and watching two dials that can move everything else: the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.1% and oil pushing higher on fresh Middle East tension. On the company front, Walmart’s results looked solid, but the stock still wobbled in premarket, which tells you investors are pricing in “good” and demanding “great.” Your next checkpoints are jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET, a Fed speech at 1:00 PM ET, and then Friday’s one-two punch of gross domestic product (GDP) (total economic output) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), which can quickly reset the rate mood.
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Key Market Drivers
Yields rose as the Fed reminded markets it can wait: U.S. Treasury yields nudged up after the Fed minutes signaled it is not in a hurry to cut. The 10-year Treasury yield sat near 4.11% early Thursday, about 2 basis points above Wednesday’s close around 4.08%. Orders for key business equipment rose 0.6% in January vs 0.4% forecast. Higher yields can raise borrowing costs and make future profits worth a bit less today, which often hits growth stocks first. They also feed into rates like mortgages and auto loans, so the ripple is real. Next check: jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET today, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) report Friday at 8:30 AM ET (Update Below), and the 10-year holding above 4.10%. Nvidia’s Meta deal gave AI stocks a second wind: Nvidia climbed 1.6% Wednesday and Meta added 0.6% after they outlined a multiyear plan for Meta to buy millions of chips for its artificial intelligence (AI) data centers. That helped steady tech sentiment after a rocky start to the week. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 19.62, still elevated but heading the right way. This tends to matter most for chipmakers and data-center suppliers because it signals demand is not falling off a cliff. The catch is capital expenditures, which can squeeze margins if spending races ahead of revenue. Keep an eye on Nvidia’s next earnings report and any updates on big-tech spending plans over the next day or two. 
S&P 500 1 Year Price Chart Feb 19, 2026
Oil’s geopolitics surcharge came back overnight: Brent crude jumped to about $71.46 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hit roughly $66.24, both up more than 1% after a decent rally Wednesday. The driver was a fresh burst of U.S.-Iran tension, which raises the risk of supply trouble in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil. Gold also pushed up, trading around $5,013 an ounce overnight. Higher oil can act like a mini tax on consumers and can keep inflation sticky, which is why bond yields often perk up when crude runs hot. Energy producers can benefit, while airlines and other fuel-heavy businesses may feel the pinch. Next check: the Energy Information Administration (EIA – official U.S. energy stats) weekly petroleum report at 12:00 PM ET and 2:00 PM ET, and whether Brent holds above $70. Currencies are whispering about policy, even if stocks ignore them: The yen weakened to about 154.96 per dollar and the euro sat near $1.18. The Fed minutes noted the New York Fed asked dealers for dollar-yen quotes on behalf of the U.S. Treasury, a subtle signal that can move the conversation fast. In Europe, chatter that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde could leave early flicked the euro lower, but it did not snowball. Currency swings filter into earnings because overseas sales get translated back into dollars, so a stronger dollar can be a headwind for big global firms. They also affect overseas returns in international funds, even when the local stocks behave. The next tell is Friday’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI – a business activity survey) readings and the U.S. gross domestic product update at 8:30 AM ET. |
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Battery Materials and Lithium
Lithium sits at the center of battery materials. The Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) is up about 3% over the last five sessions, from roughly $71.75 on Feb 12 to $73.84 on Feb 18. It holds miners, refiners, and battery makers serving electric vehicles and grid storage.
The push-pull today is stronger demand for large battery projects versus supply that is finally cautious. After lithium prices sank in 2025, producers have been quicker to pause costly expansions, which can tighten supply if demand holds. Higher lithium prices usually help miners’ margins, but they can pressure the companies buying the metal.
Albemarle (ALB):
Albemarle is a top lithium producer with both brine and hard-rock supply. It recently reported a quarterly loss and said it will idle the last active unit at its Kemerton processing plant in Australia, while canceling expansion plans. Watch whether lithium prices rise enough to bring high-cost conversion back.
Rio Tinto (RIO):
Rio Tinto is a global miner that is building a lithium business alongside its core metals. It recently took majority control of Canada’s Nemaska Lithium as it aims for an integrated Quebec supply chain. The upside is scale; the risk is execution, since mines can run late and over budget.
Lithium Americas (LAC):
Lithium Americas is developing Thacker Pass in Nevada, a major planned U.S. lithium source. Its edge is a partnership and financing mix that includes General Motors plus a government-backed loan. The latest project update keeps attention on construction pace and spending discipline.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Watch China’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI), since factory demand often flows into batteries. Two KPIs are lithium carbonate spot prices and grid-storage installations, which drive miner margins and battery order growth. Red flag: inventories rising faster than demand. If PMI steadies and lithium prices firm, miners often perk up; if inventories build as prices slip, expect the sector to cool.
Walmart (WMT)
Walmart (WMT) runs big-box stores, Sam’s Club, and a growing online marketplace. Think of it as a national pantry that also owns the delivery vans.
Walmart’s quarter showed sturdy demand: revenue was $190.7 billion, Walmart U.S. comparable sales (sales at stores open at least a year) rose 4.6% (excluding fuel), and Walmart U.S. eCommerce sales jumped 27% (global eCommerce sales grew 24%). For the year ahead, management guided for FY27 net sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% and adjusted operating income growth of 6% to 8%, both in constant currency. Shares were down about 2–3% in premarket trading.
Over the past year the stock’s story is upbeat: up about 23% over the last 12 months and roughly 195% over the last five years (total return, with dividends reinvested). Investors have been paying for “steady and improving,” not just “safe.”
Walmart has pulled in shoppers looking to save money and shoppers paying for speed and convenience. It is battling Target (TGT) for baskets in person and Amazon (AMZN) for clicks at home. For scale, Walmart’s FY2026 revenue was $713.2 billion, close to Amazon’s $716.9 billion in 2025.
The number investors will likely keep circling is that profit outlook. If adjusted operating income grows faster than sales, it usually means Walmart is getting more efficient or mixing in more high-margin revenue like ads and memberships.
Next, listen for the earnings call on general merchandise demand, e-commerce momentum, and cost pressure like wages and shrink. If digital growth stays strong while costs behave, then the narrative holds together; if either slips, sentiment can turn quickly.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Walmart is trying to be the low-price safety net and the convenience leader at the same time. The upside is steady grocery traffic plus faster online and advertising growth that can keep profits rising even if the economy cools. The risks are weaker demand for non-essentials and cost creep squeezing margins. Watch whether comparable sales stay near 4% while adjusted operating income growth stays in that 6% to 8% range.
