Good Morning Investors!!! The 8:30 data dump gave markets a mixed bag, not a clean green light. January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% for the month, right in line with expectations, while annual PCE came in at 2.8%, a touch cooler than forecast. But fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the broadest measure of growth, was revised down to just 0.7% annualized, well below expectations. In plain English, inflation is still sticky enough to keep the Federal Reserve cautious, while growth looks softer than hoped. Stock futures still nudged higher right after the release, so the market seems to view this as messy rather than disastrous, with the 10:00 AM ET JOLTS and consumer sentiment reports now acting as the next tie-breaker.
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Key Market Drivers
The oil story is now about duration: Brent crude was up to $101.34 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. oil benchmark, was at $95.99 early this morning, leaving both on track for another strong weekly gain after Thursday’s 9% surge. What stands out is that the market barely softened even after Washington issued a 30-day waiver for stranded Russian barrels and governments announced record emergency stockpile releases. Traders are instead focused on signs that the disruption could last, including Iran’s vow to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut and reports of mines in the waterway. That matters because investors are now pricing not just lost barrels, but a longer period of higher fuel and shipping costs. This tends to benefit energy producers, while airlines, freight, chemicals, and energy-intensive European manufacturers are usually pressured first. Watch whether Brent can hold above $100 after the U.S. open and whether any convoy or reopening headlines actually return more supply to the market. 
Brent Oil – March 13, 2026
Rates now have a growth problem too: Friday’s 8:30 AM ET batch landed like a split decision. January PCE rose 0.3% from December, exactly as expected, while core PCE rose 0.4%, also in line. The softer surprise came from growth. Fourth-quarter GDP was revised down to 0.7% annualized from 1.4% in the first estimate and below the 1.4% forecast, while January durable goods orders were essentially flat, though orders excluding transportation still rose 0.4%. That matters because investors still did not get a clean reason to bet on quick Federal Reserve cuts. Inflation was not hotter than feared, but core inflation is still running at 3.1% year over year, and oil above $100 keeps that pressure alive. At the same time, weaker GDP and soft factory orders suggest the economy entered 2026 with less spring in its step. Keep an eye on how the two-year Treasury yield behaves after the open, and then whether 10:00 AM ET JOLTS and the University of Michigan survey lean more toward a soft-landing story or a slower-growth, still-pricey one. Adobe’s beat came with a catch: Adobe shares were down about 9% in premarket trading early this morning, even after the company reported record first-quarter revenue of $6.40 billion, adjusted earnings of $6.06 a share, and second-quarter revenue guidance of $6.43 billion to $6.48 billion. The market’s concern was not the quarter itself, but the surprise announcement that CEO Shantanu Narayen plans to step down once a successor is named. That reaction matters because it shows how demanding software investors have become. They want proof that artificial intelligence (AI) is generating durable new revenue, not merely helping older products remain competitive, and a leadership transition adds another layer of uncertainty. Watch whether the selling spreads to other software names Friday morning, because this market is drawing a sharper distinction between clear AI beneficiaries and companies still trying to demonstrate their positioning. Private credit now has hard numbers attached: As we noted earlier this week, private credit, or lending done outside traditional banks, was already showing strain. That strain is now visible in the numbers: Morgan Stanley capped withdrawals at one fund after investors tried to redeem almost 11% of shares, and listed private credit funds are trading at about 78 cents for each dollar of reported assets, down from 85 cents at the start of the year. JPMorgan has also marked down some software-linked loan exposures. This is not a system-wide panic, but it matters because private credit helps finance corporate deals and middle-market companies that rarely tap the public bond market. If lenders become more cautious, dealmaking slows, borrowing becomes more difficult, and the pressure can spread from large private-market firms to smaller businesses and overall risk appetite. Watch whether more funds limit withdrawals or whether financial stocks remain under pressure over the next 24 to 48 hours. |
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Industrial Gases
Industrial gases are not a high-profile industry, but they are embedded across a large share of the economy. These companies supply oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, and helium to hospitals, chip plants, and factories. The industry matters right now because a helium squeeze and higher energy costs are putting pressure on a business that typically receives limited investor attention. A broad proxy for the space is the Vanguard Materials ETF (VAW), although it extends beyond gas suppliers.
This is a useful industry to follow because the business model is more straightforward than it may appear. Many suppliers sign long-term contracts or build equipment directly at a customer’s site, which can make revenue steadier than in higher-profile sectors. U.S. manufacturing has started to improve, but input costs remain volatile.
Linde (LIN):
Linde is the scale leader, selling gases used in healthcare, electronics, and heavy industry. Its advantage is a large base of on-site contracts, which can make customer relationships difficult to displace. The company recently beat fourth-quarter expectations and pointed to another year of per-share profit growth.
Air Products and Chemicals (APD):
Air Products sells the same core gases, but it has committed more heavily to large hydrogen and other project-intensive investments. That gives it more upside if demand materializes on schedule, but also creates more execution risk. Its latest quarter benefited from pricing and productivity, while investors still want more consistent project execution.
Air Liquide (AIQUY):
France-based Air Liquide is the major global peer, with a mix across industry, healthcare, and electronics. That balance can help moderate volatility when one market slows. The company recently posted record results and kept its margin plan in place.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Watch the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). When factory activity improves, gas volumes usually follow. Analysts also monitor pricing and on-site project backlog, meaning plants not yet operating, because those can help signal future revenue and margin strength. The main risk is energy costs rising faster than companies can pass them through. If PMI improves while energy costs ease, the group’s outlook should improve.
Adobe (ADBE)
Adobe makes software used to create, edit, manage, and distribute digital content, including images, PDFs, videos, and advertising materials. The company sits at the center of many creative and document workflows, which is why its products remain widely used across media, marketing, and business operations.
In the last 24 hours, Adobe reported record first-quarter revenue of $6.40 billion and adjusted earnings of $6.06 a share, then said CEO Shantanu Narayen plans to step down once a successor is named. Investors reacted negatively, and the stock was down about 9% in premarket trading early this morning.
Adobe (ADBE) Summary Page, March 13, 2026
Over a longer horizon, the stock’s chart has been weak. At Thursday’s close, Adobe was down about 29% over the past year and 39% over five years. That suggests investors want clearer proof that Adobe can remain a winner as AI reshapes the industry.
The reason is straightforward. AI is making design work easier for rivals and cheaper substitutes. Canva and Figma are pushing from the design side, and Figma shares jumped about 14% last month after upbeat guidance. Adobe is still large, with about $23.8 billion in 2025 revenue, but large incumbents are no longer receiving the benefit of the doubt.
The metric investors will continue to focus on is Annualized Recurring Revenue (ARR), which measures subscription revenue on an annualized basis. Adobe exited the quarter at $26.06 billion, but ARR growth slowed to 10.9% from 11.5% in the prior quarter. That matters because subscriptions remain central to the business model.
Going forward, watch the CEO search, whether Firefly and other AI tools translate into clearer paid growth, and whether ARR reaccelerates next quarter. If monetization becomes easier to identify, this drop may look more like a reaction to uncertainty. If not, pricing power becomes the key risk.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Adobe is not fighting for relevance. It is trying to prove that its long-standing dominance can still translate into growth in the AI era. The upside is its large installed base, high-retention products, and strong cash flow. The risks are leadership change, faster-moving rivals, and growth that still does not give investors enough confidence.
