Good Morning Investors!!! Yesterday was a split-screen kind of day: the Dow tagged another record, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq eased as soft retail sales nudged bond yields lower. This morning’s 8:30 AM ET jobs report just landed with a surprise upside — payrolls beat estimates and unemployment dipped — and the bond market didn’t waste time reacting. We’ll also peek at semiconductors, since artificial intelligence (AI) keeps chip demand in the spotlight. And yes, we’re talking Mattel too, after a sharp post-earnings drop that has investors re-checking the toy aisle for price tags.
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Key Market Drivers
Stocks split as yields drop on weak shopping: Tuesday felt like a three-lane road. The Dow closed at a fresh record, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% and the Nasdaq fell 0.6%. A weak December retail sales report, which came in flat, pushed Treasury yields lower as traders priced in more rate cuts. Think of a Treasury yield as the market’s “speed limit” for money. When yields fall, borrowing can get cheaper and stocks that act like long-term bets often breathe easier. Still, weak shopping can hint at slower growth. Fed talk cools the “cuts are coming” vibe: A Federal Reserve official cooled rate-cut chatter. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said rates could stay on hold for “quite some time,” and she flagged a risk that inflation stays near 3%. She votes on the Federal Open Market Committee (Fed rate-setting group). When the Fed hints at “no rush,” bond traders listen first, and stocks tend to follow. This morning’s jobs report added fuel to the rates debate, with stronger hiring and firmer wage growth pushing yields higher right after the release. 
S&P 500 1 Year Price Chart, Feb 11, 2026
Tech gets a “show me the receipt” moment: Tech had a “show me the receipt” day. Alphabet (GOOGL) dipped after it sold $20 billion of bonds, which is a fancy way to say it borrowed money. That put artificial intelligence (AI) costs back in the hot seat. Wall Street calls it capital spending, and it matters because tech is a big chunk of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. If capex jumps, the cash left over can shrink, even if sales look fine. A quick visual helps. Overseas moves nudge the mood dial: Overnight, markets stayed mixed. European stocks were a bit lower, while U.S. stock futures were slightly higher. The Japanese yen jumped about 2.5% versus the dollar since Japan’s election, and gold rose above $5,000 an ounce. Currency moves can sway firms, since a rising yen can hurt Japanese exporters and help importers. Gold tends to shine when investors get jumpy. Bitcoin slid near $67,000, which hinted that the market’s taste for risk was not in party mode. |
WED Feb 11, 2026 — 8:30 AM ET
U.S. jobs report: Payrolls +130k vs +70k expected; 4.3% unemployment vs 4.4% expected. Wages rose 0.4% in January (+3.7% over the last year).
WED Feb 11, 2026 — Before open
Big earnings: McDonald’s (MCD); Shopify (SHOP); Humana (HUM); Vertiv (VRT); Unity Software (U).
WED Feb 11, 2026 — 10:30 AM ET
Weekly oil inventory report: Fresh read on U.S. crude and fuel stockpiles, often a driver of oil prices.
WED Feb 11, 2026 — 1:00 PM ET
10-year note auction: Demand check for long-term rates (can sway stock mood and mortgage rates).
WED Feb 11, 2026 — After close (4:30 PM ET)
Cisco (CSCO) earnings: Results and outlook, plus a 4:30 PM ET call.
THU Feb 12, 2026 — 8:30 AM ET
Weekly jobless claims: Quick read on layoffs in near real time.
Thoughts from InvestorsGrow:
The 8:30 AM jobs report is now in the books — and it was a clear “beat” on the headline. The U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January versus about 70,000 expected, and unemployment dipped to 4.3% versus 4.4% expected. This release also included the annual benchmark revisions. Translation: even though January was better than feared, the historical math just got rewritten — and the bond market is reacting to both the new month AND the revised past. With yields already higher after the report, the 1:00 PM ET 10-year auction now matters even more as a “second opinion” on where rates want to settle.
Under the hood, hiring was concentrated in a few places: health care, social assistance, and construction led the gains, while federal government and financial activities lost jobs. Wages also ran a bit warm: average hourly earnings rose 0.4% in January and are up 3.7% over the past year.
Here’s the twist that matters for investors: today’s report also delivered the annual benchmark revisions — and they were not small. The BLS revised down the March 2025 payroll level by about 898,000, and it revised total 2025 job growth from +584,000 to +181,000. Think of it like a scoreboard correction: the latest quarter looked better, but last season’s totals just got marked down.
Markets reacted fast. Right after the release, stock futures pushed higher and Treasury yields jumped (higher yields usually mean “the market thinks the Fed may not need to cut as soon”). The big takeaway: the labor market doesn’t look like it’s collapsing, but it also isn’t the growth engine it once was — and the revised history supports the “slow-but-still-standing” narrative.
Semiconductors
Semiconductors are the tiny “brains” inside phones, cars, and data centers. They matter now because AI needs a lot of chips and a lot of power. One easy way to track the group is the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH). The ETF is up about 62% over the past year, although we should be aware that NVDA is a heavy piece of SMH (see below).
The main push is big spending on servers and the gear that makes chips, plus some headline risk from trade rules. Taiwan Semiconductor’s January revenue rose 36.8% from a year ago, which hints demand is still firm. ASML said orders jumped last quarter as customers race to add AI capacity.
NVIDIA (NVDA):
Nvidia builds graphics processing units (GPU) that power many AI systems. Its edge is CUDA software, which helps keep developers on its tools. The next spotlight is earnings on Feb. 25, with China chip-export rules as a key risk.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM):
TSMC is a foundry, meaning it makes chips for other brands. Its edge is leading-edge manufacturing at huge scale, which is tough to match. January revenue was about NT$401.26 billion, up 36.8% from a year ago, and management has pointed to heavy spending to expand capacity.
ASML (ASML):
ASML sells the machines that “print” chips onto wafers. It is the only major supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) (ultra-fine chip printing tech) for top-end chips. It reported a surge in quarterly bookings and also announced job cuts, a reminder that cycles still exist.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Watch the 10-year Treasury yield, because higher yields can pinch high-growth stock prices. Two key scorecards are equipment “bookings” and foundry utilization, since both can hint at demand six to twelve months out. A red flag is inventory building up, which can lead to price cuts and weaker margins. If yields rise while bookings cool, expect the chip ETF to feel the pressure.
Mattel (MAT)
Mattel (MAT) makes toys and runs brands like Barbie and Hot Wheels. It is also trying to turn those brands into movies, games, and licensing deals. Think of it like a hit movie studio that also sells the merch.
Late Tuesday, Mattel shared fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results plus its 2026 outlook. The big surprise was a profit guide that came in well below what analysts had penciled in. Management also pointed to heavy discounting in December, which is the retail version of yelling “SALE!” across the mall.
The stock reaction was swift. Shares fell about 25% to 30% in after-hours trading after the report. That move matters because it tells you investors are worried the holiday season was more “clearance aisle” than “must-have.”
The stock was up about 6% over the past year going into this report. Over the five years ending 2024, it was up about 31%. That mix says investor mood had improved, but it was still fragile, like a Lego tower on a wobbly table.
So how did we get here? Toy demand is steady, but many shoppers are price-sensitive, and retailers can swing orders around at the last minute. Meanwhile, rival Hasbro has had a stronger digital game engine, which raises the bar for what Wall Street calls “a good quarter.”
One number will get the spotlight: 2026 adjusted earnings per share of $1.18 to $1.30. When that number drops, it tells investors the company may need more promos or spending to drive sales, which can squeeze profit.
Next, watch three things: whether discounting cools off, whether its digital game push starts to show up in results, and whether retailer orders look steadier. If gross margin (sales left after product costs) stabilizes, then the story gets easier; if it keeps sliding, the risk is more tough quarters.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Mattel is being asked to prove it can turn great brands into steady profit, not just big moments. The upside is simple: fewer discounts, solid demand for “evergreen” hits like Hot Wheels, and more licensing and entertainment wins that keep shoppers interested. The risks are also simple: promos stay heavy, costs bite, and the game strategy takes longer to pay off. Keep one eye on gross margin and one eye on adjusted EPS guidance; if margins firm up while guidance trends higher, sentiment can thaw.
