Good Morning Investors!!! Yesterday, stocks kept climbing, but today is the real “show me” moment. The Federal Reserve is on deck, and markets will hang on every word from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC—the Fed’s rate-setting group) and Chair Jerome Powell. Tonight, big tech earnings could swing the mood fast, since these giants carry a lot of weight in the indexes. And in company news, United Parcel Service (UPS) is cutting costs and trimming Amazon volume, which is a big signal for the shipping and shopping pulse.
Key Market DriversFed day, plus a shaky dollar: The S&P 500 hit a fresh high near 6,979 Tuesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid on a health-insurer selloff (UNH). Today’s main act is the Federal Reserve (U.S. central bank), expected to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. Overnight, markets were mixed, with Europe lower and Japan higher. Traders watched the U.S. dollar near a four-year low, since swings can ripple into bond rates and earnings. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement lands at 2:00 PM ET, and Powell speaks at 2:30 PM ET. 
S&P 500 1 Year Price Chart – Jan 28, 2026
Tech earnings take the mic tonight: Tonight is a big one for tech giants, with Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla set to report after the close. These names have been a big reason the Nasdaq Composite index has been strong (and the S&P 500). Investors will watch revenue and what management says about artificial intelligence (AI). The key question is not just “Did they beat?” but also what they say about capital spending (money for data centers and gear). If that bill keeps climbing, profit can look thinner, while strong demand and good forecasts can keep the AI story and market mood on track. Medicare rates rattle health insurers: Health-insurer stocks took a punch Tuesday after the government floated a much smaller bump in 2027 Medicare Advantage (MA) pay. UnitedHealth, Humana, and CVS slid hard, and the drop helped pull the Dow lower even as the S&P 500 hit a record. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (agency that sets payment rates) suggested the 2027 bump may be just 0.09%. That is close to flat, so insurers may face a profit squeeze and may cut extras to keep costs in line. Final rates arrive in April, so expect headlines. Oil jumps on storm fears: Oil popped again as a winter storm cut U.S. output and slowed Gulf Coast shipping. West Texas Intermediate (U.S. crude benchmark) traded near $62 a barrel early Wednesday. Brent crude (global oil benchmark) was near $67. Higher oil can act like a small tax on drivers, and it can keep inflation hotter than the Fed would like. Energy stocks often like it, while travel and shipping firms may not. Add Middle East tension into the mix, and oil can stay jumpy. |
Thoughts from InvestorsGrow:
The Fed meeting is what the market is watching today. It is not just “Did they change rates?” but “How do they sound?” If the Fed talks tougher on inflation, bond yields can rise and stocks can get grumpy. If they sound more relaxed, markets may start to price in cuts later.
Tonight’s big-tech earnings are the other heavyweight match. These firms are so big that when they sneeze, the broader markets reach for a tissue. Watch two things: growth in the core business and spend on AI gear. If guidance is strong, the market can keep dancing. If it is weak, expect some wobbles.
Tomorrow morning, jobless claims are the quick “weather report” for jobs. A calm number can support the “soft landing” story (slower growth, no crash). A big jump can spook stocks, but it can also pull yields down if traders think the Fed may cut sooner. The trade report matters too because trade can nudge Gross Domestic Product (total size of the economy), but one month is not a full movie.
HVAC and Building Cooling
Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) is what keeps buildings from turning into ovens. It includes heat pumps, chillers, filters, and controls that move air and manage temp. If it works, you forget it exists, which is oddly the goal.
Hotter weather, energy rules, and the data center boom are pushing more upgrades. But a claim that next-gen chips may need less cooling has rattled this space and sparked some quick sell-offs. Rates still matter as well, and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) is up almost 20% over the past year.
Carrier Global (CARR):
Carrier sells HVAC for homes and big buildings, plus refrigeration for transport and storage. That mix can help balance weak housing with steadier commercial work. Carrier reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 5 at 7:30 AM ET.
Trane Technologies (TT):
Trane makes commercial HVAC systems and owns Thermo King, which cools trucks and trailers. It stands out for service, since maintenance can hold up better than new gear orders in a slowdown. Trane reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on Jan. 29 at 10:00 AM ET.
Daikin Industries (6367.T):
Daikin is a global air-conditioning leader and says its air conditioning sales rank No. 1 worldwide. It also makes both air conditioners and refrigerants, which can help when the industry shifts to new coolants. Daikin plans a third-quarter fiscal 2025 results announcement on Feb. 4.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Watch the 10-year Treasury yield, because it feeds into mortgage rates and building budgets. Track new orders/backlog (future work booked) and service share (repeat revenue) to see if demand is holding up. Red flag: “order push-outs,” when customers delay projects; if yields rise while backlog shrinks, expect these stocks to sell off faster than peers.
United Parcel Service (UPS)
United Parcel Service (UPS) (package delivery giant) is one of the biggest “box movers” on Earth. It picks up packages, sorts them, and ships them by truck and plane. When shopping carts fill up, UPS often feels it first. When carts get quiet, UPS hears that too.
The big news: UPS said it plans to cut up to 30,000 jobs and close 24 sites in 2026. The company is shrinking the number of Amazon packages it delivers, since that work has been lower profit. At the same time, UPS posted a strong holiday quarter and gave a 2026 sales outlook that came in better than many expected.
Why does this matter for investors? UPS is trying to trade “more boxes” for “better boxes,” meaning fewer low-profit shipments and more higher-profit work. One key clue is pricing. (Term: revenue per piece, how much money UPS gets per package, on average.) UPS said U.S. Domestic revenue per piece rose 8.3% in Q4 even as volume fell, which hints it has some pricing power.
What to watch next is simple: can UPS keep raising price per package while it cuts Amazon volume? Management also said revenue may be softer early in the year, then improve later once the Amazon pullback is mostly done. Keep an eye on updates about site closures, driver buyouts, and whether shipping demand perks up or keeps dragging.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Think of UPS like a restaurant that stops taking low-tip delivery orders so it can focus on higher-margin meals. That can be great, but only if enough good orders show up. Watch shipping volume outside Amazon and the average revenue per package. Red flag: if volume drops faster than prices rise, profits can get squeezed. If price per package climbs while non-Amazon volume holds steady, expect a smoother ride.
