Good Morning Investors!!! Today’s big swing factor is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) (key inflation report), since one hot or cool print can move bond rates and stock mood in a hurry. At the same time, fresh headlines tied to the Federal Reserve have investors watching the dollar and gold closely. We will also break down Alphabet’s new Apple tie-up for its Gemini artificial intelligence (AI), plus the chatter that clipped bank and credit card stocks. And for a change of scenery, we check in on cruises and hotels as “wave season” booking buzz rolls in.
Key Market DriversFed pressure fears lift gold, sink the dollar: Politics snuck into markets again. A criminal probe tied to Federal Reserve (US central bank) Chair Jerome Powell sparked fear about pressure on how rates get set. That fear is about Fed independence, which is its ability to act without politics. Stocks still set records Monday, but the dollar slid and gold jumped near $4,600 an ounce (as of 6:00 AM ET). When investors doubt the referee, they charge a “stress fee” for risk, and swings can get bigger. 
Gold Spot Price – Jan 13, 2026
Inflation report day: CPI at 8:30 AM ET: (update below) Next up is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) (key inflation read) at 8:30 AM ET. Traders treat it like a report card for prices, since it can shift what the Fed does next. Overnight, Japan’s Nikkei hit a record high and the yen slid to historic lows on election and stimulus chatter, while global markets digested the U.S. CPI print. U.S. Treasury yields (interest rates on government bonds) ended Monday with the 10-year at 4.19%. If CPI runs hot, yields can rise, and pricey growth stocks often sag. If it runs cool, rate-cut bets can grow, and the mood can perk up. Credit card rate-cap talk bruises banks: Banks and card firms slid after President Trump floated a one-year 10% cap on credit card interest rates. Investors worry the move could trim profits, since card rates are a big part of the business model, and the average rate is still around the low 20% range. It is not law yet, and it likely needs Congress to sign off. Still, the idea hit as banks start reporting earnings, so listen for clues on card profits and loan demand. Now if this cap did get enforced, although it sounds like it would be good for consumers, what is likely to happen is that many lower income consumers would simply have their credit limit slashed as the banks would have less incentive to extend credit. This would have a much greater impact on lower wage earners and could hurt the broader economy. Oil rises as Iran fears grow: Oil climbed as traders priced in fresh worry from Iran, where unrest raised fears of supply hits and talk of new U.S. tariffs. Brent crude was near $64 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) near $60. Higher oil can act like sand in the gears for the economy, since it pushes gas and shipping costs up. That can make inflation harder to cool, and it can keep interest rates higher than folks want. |
Thoughts from InvestorsGrow:
Today is all about CPI. Think of it as the price thermometer. If it comes in hotter than expected, Treasury yields (bond interest rates) can pop and stocks can wobble, because the Federal Reserve (Fed) (U.S. central bank) may keep rates high for longer. If it comes in cooler, yields often fall and stocks tend to smile. Many economists think recent shutdown delays made the last inflation data messy, so this report may feel like a cleaner test.
UPDATE: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in December and was up 2.7% from a year ago, matching forecasts. Core CPI (CPI excluding food and energy) ran cooler at 0.2% on the month and 2.6% on the year versus 0.3% and 2.7% expected. That is a small win for the “soft landing” idea, and it gives the Federal Reserve more room to stay patient. Markets took it as good news, with S&P 500 futures moved up about 0.2% and the 10-year Treasury yield (bond interest rate) down near 4.16% as of 8:33 AM ET.
Tomorrow’s retail sales is the checkout line report. Strong sales can boost growth hopes, but it can also keep rate worries alive if it hints that demand is still too strong. Weak sales can sting retail and travel stocks, yet it may also cool inflation fears. Bank earnings add a second lens. Listen for talk about loan growth and missed payments, since that is where stress can show up first.
Hotels and Cruises
Travel and leisure stocks are acting like that friend who still wants to go out on a Tuesday night. The Invesco Leisure and Entertainment exchange-traded fund (PEJ) was about flat over the past week but its up about 20% over the past year closing at $61.81 yesterday. That matters because travel is often one of the first bills people skip when money feels tight.
January is also “wave season” (peak cruise booking stretch), so early booking data can show if demand is real or just deal-hunting. Hotels track room rates and occupancy, often summed up as revenue per available room (RevPAR) (hotel price-and-fill score). Investors also watch costs, since fuel and labor can eat profits even when ships and rooms are full.
Royal Caribbean Group (RCL):
Royal Caribbean runs big cruise brands and sells trips worldwide. Its edge is newer mega-ships and private destinations that help it price higher. It just set a $1.00 quarterly dividend and approved a new $2 billion share buyback, but fuel and maintenance can swing results.
Marriott International (MAR):
Marriott earns fees by managing and franchising hotels, while others own most buildings. Its luxury brands have held up better than budget stays, based on recent updates. It plans to report fourth quarter (Q4) (last three months of year) results on Feb. 10.
InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG):
InterContinental Hotels Group is a United Kingdom hotel giant behind Holiday Inn and InterContinental. It grows by signing new hotels and collecting fees once they open. It has flagged softer United States demand, and it reports full-year results on Feb. 17.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Strong bookings are great, but costs decide who wins the trip, so watch both.
Alphabet (GOOGL)
Alphabet (GOOGL) is the parent of Google Search, YouTube, and Android. Most of its money still comes from ads, so brands pay to show up when you search or watch a video. It also runs Google Cloud, which rents computing power and sells business tools.
On Monday, shares hit a record and Alphabet briefly crossed $4 trillion in market value (market cap, which is stock price times shares). The spark was a new multi-year deal where Apple will use Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence (AI) (software that learns from data) to help power future Apple Intelligence features, including a more personal Siri later this year. That is a loud “we trust your tech” note from the iPhone maker.
Why it matters is simple: if Gemini gets built into more devices, Alphabet can sell more cloud and AI services behind the scenes. In its most recent quarter, Google Cloud revenue jumped 34% from a year ago, showing this side of the house is growing fast. Alphabet said its cloud backlog was $155 billion, which hints that demand is still waiting in line (Term: Backlog is signed work that has not hit sales yet). Next up, watch Alphabet’s results on Feb. 4 after the close for clues on ad growth, AI costs, and whether this Apple tie-up turns into real dollars.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Alphabet is still an ad giant, but it is also turning AI into a second growth engine. The bull case is stronger products and more cloud sales if big partners keep picking Gemini. The big risks are heavy AI spend and the fact that regulators can change the rules mid-game. If you follow this stock, track cloud growth and profits together, not just the hype.
