Good Morning Investors!!! Markets rallied into Wednesday’s close on a big-tech bounce, then futures were mostly flat overnight even after Nvidia topped sales expectations. Oil slid as Brent hovered near $70 and WTI around $64 after a large U.S. crude inventory build and renewed geopolitics headlines. The key catalysts hit early: 8:30 AM ET jobless claims (update below), a couple of pre-market earnings, and a 10:00 AM ET Fed hearing. After that, we shift to value retail and Axon’s earnings-driven jump.
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Key Market Drivers
Nvidia beats, but futures barely react: The S&P 500 jumped 0.8% to 6,946.13 at Wednesday’s close, and the Nasdaq rose 1.3% to 23,152.08. After the bell, Nvidia reported $68.13 billion in quarterly sales vs $66.21 billion expected, yet Dow futures were down 0.11%, S&P 500 futures down 0.09%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.11%. This “good but not great” vibe matters because pricey growth stocks rely on future profits, and higher rates or softer demand can make those future dollars worth less today. The next tell will be whether Nvidia can hold a modest gain after the open and whether 8:30 AM ET jobless claims or Friday’s 8:30 AM ET producer prices shake rates. 
S&P 500 1 Year Price Chart, Feb 26, 2026
Oil slides after a huge stockpile build: Oil prices cooled overnight, with Brent down 1.16% at $70.03 a barrel and WTI down 1.2% at $64.63. The big nudge was a 16 million barrels jump in US crude inventories, plus traders sizing up US-Iran nuclear talks that could lower the odds of supply trouble. Cheaper oil tends to ease gasoline and shipping costs, which can cool inflation and give the Fed less reason to stay hawkish, but it can pinch energy profits fast. Keep an eye on headlines from Geneva and whether Brent holds $70 as OPEC+ weighs an April output hike. Europe prints another record vibe on earnings: Europe’s STOXX 600 nudged up 0.2% to 634.60, flirting with another record as earnings rolled in. Spain’s Indra jumped 18% on strong results, while London Stock Exchange Group climbed 6.1% on a buyback plan, which is when a company repurchases shares, and Schneider Electric gained 3.7% on data-center demand tied to AI. When Europe is setting highs while US futures are sleepy, it often signals investors are willing to take risk, just not at any price. The next checkpoint is whether this earnings-led lift holds into the European close and spills into the US open, especially if tech sentiment firms up after Nvidia. Asia’s chip mood is bright, but Hong Kong sulks: South Korea’s KOSPI surged 3.7% to about 6,307 after the index first broke above 6,000 on Wednesday, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 1.4%. The pop came after the Bank of Korea (BOK, South Korea’s central bank) held its policy rate at 2.50% and lifted its 2026 growth view, helping the won strengthen to 1,422.9 per dollar. A strong South Korea market often matters for US investors because it is packed with chip supply chain names, and it can hint at real demand beyond the hype. Worth watching is whether the won stays near 1,420 and whether US-listed semis keep pace at the open, since a hot Asia lead can fizzle fast if US rates jump. |
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Value Retail (Off-Price + Dollar Stores)
Value retail is the bargain corner of shopping. It includes off-price chains and dollar stores. It matters when inflation stays sticky and shoppers start trading down. If retail has shown up here before, today we’re zooming in on the bargain aisle.
As a broad gauge, the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), fell about 1.5% over the last five trading days through Wednesday’s close. The big driver is pricing power. In the next few weeks, watch guidance for signs that traffic is up but profits are not.
TJX Companies (TJX):
TJX runs the “treasure hunt” model via TJ Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods, buying closeouts and refreshing shelves fast. Its advantage is scale, with a deep buying network that can keep assortments feeling new. It just beat holiday expectations but guided cautiously for the year.
Dollar Tree (DLTR):
Dollar Tree sells basics and seasonal items at low price points, often winning quick trips. Its edge is small baskets and frequent visits. It reports in mid-March, with investors listening for traffic and shrink (lost inventory from theft or damage).
Dollarama (DOL.TO):
Dollarama is Canada’s leading value retailer with many items at fixed price points. Dense store coverage and disciplined sourcing help it keep prices sharp. It recently raised its annual sales outlook and holds a majority stake in Dollarcity for growth beyond Canada.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Watch the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Hot CPI can drive more bargain hunting, but it can also lift retailer costs. Track comparable sales (same-store sales) and gross margin. Red flag: inventory building up and forcing markdowns. Watchlist: If CPI rises while gross margins fall, expect more traffic but tougher earnings.
Axon Enterprise (AXON)
Axon Enterprise (AXON) makes tools for public safety: TASER devices, body-worn cameras, and subscription software that stores video and manages digital evidence. Think “camera shop + cloud filing cabinet,” bundled into one contract.
In the last 24 hours, Axon reported strong quarterly results. Adjusted profit came in at $2.15 per share on about $797 million of revenue, and the company said it expects 2026 revenue to grow roughly 27% to 30%. Shares jumped about 18% in Wednesday’s session.
AXON 1 Year Price Chart, Feb 26, 2026
AXON is up about 4% over the last 52 weeks, but the ride has been volatile — the stock’s 52‑week range runs roughly $396 to $886. The long-term trend is up, even if the last year has been more “prove it” than “take my money.”
The “why” is a mix shift: more recurring software, more add-on services, and more artificial intelligence (AI – computers finding patterns fast) features layered on top of the hardware. That can create switching costs (pain of changing vendors), which helps retention. Competition is real, though, from Motorola Solutions (MSI) in public-safety tech and private players like Flock Safety in license-plate readers. Investors also price in perfection: Axon’s forward price-to-earnings (P/E – price per $1 of profit) has sat far above the industry median.
A number investors will keep circling is bookings of $7.4 billion in 2025, up 46% year over year. Bookings are signed orders, and they matter because they’re the “next revenue” queue. What to watch next: software growth, bookings momentum, and whether margins keep improving. If bookings stay hot, then the valuation looks less scary; if not, the stock’s mood can turn quickly.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Axon is trying to be the operating system for public safety, not just the company that sells the gadget. If it keeps turning devices into sticky subscriptions, growth can stay strong. The risks are budget cycles, privacy backlash, and a premium valuation that does not forgive stumbles.
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