Good Morning Investors!!! Oil and volatility were elevated early today: Brent jumped about 8% to $78.62, gold climbed nearly 4%, and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) moved above 23 as investors priced in fresh geopolitical risk. This combination often pressures high-valuation growth stocks and can support energy, defense, and other more essential segments of the market. The next key data point is the Institute for Supply Management (ISM – U.S. factory survey) manufacturing report at 10:00 AM ET, which can influence rates, margins, and the soft landing versus setbacks narrative. We will also monitor AI names that are being re-priced and watch for signs that credit stress is spreading beyond the headline. Volatility may remain elevated today.
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Key Market Drivers
Oil shock makes a comeback: Oil moved sharply higher overnight. West Texas Intermediate (WTI – US crude benchmark) was up about 8% near $72.60 a barrel, while the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose to roughly 23.7. For a quick view of the move. In Europe, the STOXX 600, a broad stock index, fell about 1.5% early Monday and airline shares declined as routes were rerouted around closed airspace. The move followed a new escalation after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran’s response, which has traders factoring in potential supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil prices can lift inflation expectations, which tends to pressure tech and consumer stocks, while supporting energy and defense names. Monitor whether crude holds above the low $70s, and track headlines on shipping, sanctions, and any signs the conflict is widening over the next 24 to 48 hours. 
Brent Crude Oil, March 2, 2026
Hot PPI kept rate concerns elevated: Treasuries rallied on Friday, with the 10-year Treasury yield dipping to about 3.96% even after a hotter Producer Price Index (PPI – wholesale inflation gauge) report. The headline PPI rose 0.5% in January versus 0.3% forecast, and core PPI (excluding food and energy) jumped 0.8%, the biggest gain in more than three years. Together, those readings suggest inflation remains sticky, which can keep the Federal Reserve cautious on rate cuts, even as investors continued to seek safety in Treasuries. Lower yields can support stock valuations, but they can also reflect rising growth concerns. The next tell is the delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report on March 13 and Friday’s February jobs report at 8:30 AM ET. AI winners and losers are getting re-priced: AI-linked stocks remained volatile on Friday, led by Nvidia’s 4.2% slide, even after what many called solid results a day earlier. Chip shares fell about 1.2% and software names dropped roughly 1.5% as investors continued to ask the same question: who gets paid, and who gets replaced by artificial intelligence (AI)? Part of the concern is valuation. When a stock’s price depends on years of future growth, a decline in confidence can drive a larger move today. The dynamic cut both ways: Block jumped 16.8% after saying it will cut more than 4,000 jobs as it leans on AI tools, which markets treated as a margin boost. Next up, watch Broadcom’s results on Wednesday, March 4 after the close, and Nvidia’s GTC conference keynote on March 16. Credit concerns are extending into financials: Financial stress resurfaced on Friday, with the S&P 500 bank index down about 4% and Jefferies off nearly 10% after investors digested fallout from a UK mortgage lender collapse. In private credit, Blue Owl fell about 6% on the day, and it is down roughly 29% so far this year. The concern is less about a single loan and more about the underlying financing structure. Reports tied the UK lender’s problems to loan backing issues and potential shortfalls, the kind of headline that can make lenders tighten standards quickly. When credit becomes harder to find, smaller companies often feel it first, and that can ripple into jobs and spending. The next check is whether more lenders disclose exposure, and whether borrowing costs keep rising in the days ahead. |
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Industrial Metals and Miners
Industrial metals producers supply key inputs for the economy; copper for power, steel for structures, and aluminum for lighter parts. When major building cycles strengthen, metals demand often follows. A simple reference point is the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME), up about 1.6% last week through Friday’s close.
The current focus is on copper, since it shows up in grid upgrades, electric vehicles, and data centers. Supply is slow to ramp because new mines take years, not quarters, so prices can jump on any disruption or policy headline. Overnight, geopolitical headlines increased investor focus on commodities.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX):
A major copper producer with large operations in the U.S. and South America plus the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia. FCX is more sensitive to copper prices than most peers, so a move in copper prices can show up quickly in earnings power. The near-term item to monitor is progress on Grasberg operating rights and restart timing, with execution and geopolitical risk if plans slip.
Rio Tinto (RIO):
A global mining leader best known for iron ore, while copper and aluminum have become bigger profit drivers lately. Rio’s advantage is scale and long-life assets, which can help it stay steady when commodity cycles become more volatile. The near-term question is whether stronger copper trends can offset softer iron ore tied to China’s steel demand.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Monitor the U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index, since metals typically perform better when factories are busier. Two industry KPIs to track are the copper price and miners’ unit costs (think cost per pound/ton), since higher prices and lower costs usually support margins. Risk signal: rising metal inventories at the same time prices start sliding, which often indicates demand is cooling. If PMI is rising while copper holds firm, that typically supports miners.
Lockheed Martin (LMT)
Lockheed Martin (LMT) builds defense hardware like fighter jets, missile-defense systems, and satellites, plus long-term maintenance and upgrades. It operates as a large contractor that supplies systems for a government’s national-security needs and supports them over time.
In the last 24 hours, LMT rose as geopolitical risk increased. After a weekend escalation in the Middle East, defense stocks rallied on the idea that demand for missiles, interceptors, and other equipment could climb, with LMT up about 6% in premarket trading.
LMT – 1 Year Price Chart, March 2, 2026
LMT is up about 46% over the last year. It is also roughly 2% below its February 2026 peak. This suggests investors have been willing to pay more for the “steady demand” narrative, while remaining sensitive to shifts in sentiment.
The move reflects Lockheed’s ties to government budgets and multi-year programs, not consumer spending. That can make results steadier than many industries, but headlines and budget priorities can still swing sentiment quickly. In the defense sector, RTX (RTX) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) are close peers, and lower-cost alternatives like drones can compete for funding in certain missions.
Scale matters. LMT brought in about $75.0 billion of revenue in 2025, so even small percentage shifts in demand or production cadence can translate into meaningful dollars. Investors will also focus on cash from operating activities of about $8.6 billion in 2025, because cash pays dividends, funds factories, and supports operations even when politics becomes more volatile.
What to watch next: updates on defense budgets and missile-defense procurement, delivery cadence on major programs, and the next earnings call for margin commentary. If demand signals keep firming, then future cash flow gets easier to underwrite; if headlines cool off and budgets tighten, the near-term move can fade quickly.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
This move is mostly about the market repricing “demand certainty” in a higher-uncertainty environment. Upside comes from higher orders, faster production, and strong cash generation that supports shareholder returns. Key risks include shifting budget politics, program hiccups, and contract risks (especially when costs rise faster than expected).
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