Good Morning Investors!!! Markets are starting the week with a clear message: oil has moved from a geopolitical concern to a tangible supply issue, Treasury yields are climbing even after a weak jobs report, and investors are closely focused on Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). That mix matters because it can pressure several areas at once, from airline and factory costs to smaller stocks that benefit from easier borrowing conditions. Add Tuesday’s 3-year Treasury auction and Oracle after the close, and the next 48 hours could provide an important early test for markets.
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Key Market Drivers
Oil just turned from a scare into a shortage story: As we noted Friday, oil was already pressing on shipping and travel costs. What changed over the weekend is that traders began pricing in actual lost barrels, not just headline risk. Brent briefly hit $119.50 overnight, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. oil benchmark, also jumped above $119 after Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE cut output and tankers continued avoiding the Strait of Hormuz. That matters because triple-digit crude can affect costs quickly, from gasoline and jet fuel to trucking, plastics, and fertilizer. Energy producers and defense names have attracted buyers, while airlines, cruise operators, and other fuel-intensive businesses are again under pressure. Keep an eye on whether Brent can stay above $100 and whether talk of an emergency reserve release turns into actual barrels over the next 24 to 48 hours. 
Crude Oil 3-9-2026 – 1 Year Chart
The jobs miss did not save bonds for long: Friday’s jobs report looked bond-friendly at first. The US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February vs a forecast gain of 59,000, and unemployment rose to 4.4% vs 4.3% expected. By Monday morning, though, the 10-year Treasury yield was back near 4.20%, up from 3.93% a week ago, because higher oil can keep inflation sticky just as growth cools. That leaves the Fed in a difficult position. That mix has a name, stagflation, meaning slower growth plus stubborn inflation, and it tends to pressure homebuilders, utilities, and smaller firms that need cheaper borrowing. The next key data point is Wednesday’s CPI at 8:30 AM ET, with Tuesday’s 3-year Treasury auction and Wednesday’s 10-year Treasury auction showing whether buyers step in at these yields. Market stress is spreading beyond travel: The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) briefly pushed toward 35 in early trade, its highest since April 2025, while futures tracking the Russell 2000 were down about 2%. Big bank stocks were off more than 2% premarket, and travel names such as Alaska Air, United, Carnival, and Royal Caribbean were down roughly 3%. This is the market moving from an oil-driven headline to a broader test of risk appetite. Smaller firms usually feel higher fuel bills and tighter credit more quickly, banks have less room for error if recession odds rise, and travel gets squeezed from both directions when tickets cost more and consumers grow cautious. Energy and defense names were among the few bright spots, which shows how narrowly the market is currently allocating strength. Watch whether the VIX settles back below 30 and whether weakness stays concentrated in travel and banks, or spreads into a wider set of cyclical stocks over the next day or two. The inflation shock is leaking into food and factory floors: The shock is no longer just about crude. Malaysian palm oil jumped 9% overnight, Chicago soybean oil hit its highest since late 2022, aluminum climbed to $3,544 a ton, a four-year high, and wheat rose to its highest since June 2024. That happened because expensive oil makes biofuels more attractive, while Gulf smelters and shippers are struggling to move product normally. For investors, this is how an energy spike feeds into grocery bills and factory margins before it shows up clearly in the next earnings call. Food makers, restaurants, beverage can suppliers, autos, and construction names can all feel that pressure, while some commodity producers get a tailwind. Keep an eye on whether these follow-on moves cool if oil gives back ground, because Wednesday’s CPI is for February and will tell us more about the pre-shock inflation backdrop than the full weekend jolt. |
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Energy Producers and Refiners
We’re staying in energy but shifting away from oilfield services. This time the focus is on the companies that produce oil and the ones that turn crude into gasoline and diesel. An ETF like the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) rose about 1% last week through Friday’s close, while the S&P 500 fell about 2%.
The driver is simple. West Texas Intermediate (WTI – a key U.S. oil benchmark) jumped above $100 early Monday, as of 5:17 AM ET, as supply fears flared in the Middle East. Higher crude can lift producers fast, while refiners care more about refining margins, or the gap between fuel prices and crude costs.
Exxon Mobil (XOM):
Exxon is one of the biggest integrated energy companies, meaning it drills, refines, and sells fuel. Its edge is low-cost growth in Guyana and the Permian Basin. Recent results beat expectations, helped by production hitting a 40-year high.
Valero Energy (VLO):
Valero is a refiner. It buys crude, turns it into gasoline and diesel, and does best when fuel prices outrun oil costs. Recent results beat expectations as margins improved and its refineries ran more crude.
Shell (SHEL):
Shell is a global heavyweight with a big liquefied natural gas (LNG) business. That gives it more exposure to global gas demand than many U.S. peers. Its latest quarter was softer than expected, but it kept buying back shares at the same pace.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
For everyday investors, watch WTI first because it often sets the mood for this group. Then watch daily production and refining margin per barrel. Those numbers show whether companies are selling more energy and keeping more of each sale. One red flag to watch is if fuel prices stop rising while crude keeps climbing. If WTI rises, production holds steady, and margins widen, earnings estimates often follow.
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Lamb Weston (LW)
Lamb Weston is a major supplier of frozen potato products to restaurants and grocery retailers. The company has broad exposure to fast-food and foodservice demand, even if its brand is less visible to consumers than the end products it supplies.
The immediate catalyst was not earnings. Activist investor Starboard Value built a sizable stake and is pushing Lamb Weston to move faster on cost cuts and operational fixes. The stock is back in focus Monday, but the bigger question for investors is whether management can turn activist pressure into better margins, steadier volumes, and a more credible turnaround story.
Lamb Weston – 10 year P/E Ratio Chart
Stepping back, the stock still looks weak. Shares are down a little over 10% over the past year and sit about 31% below their October 2025 high. That tells you investors want evidence of a turnaround, not just another presentation.
That caution makes sense. Lamb Weston has been dealing with softer restaurant traffic, higher manufacturing costs, and the difficult tradeoff of cutting prices to keep orders coming. Rival McCain Foods says it generates about C$16 billion in annual revenue, while Lamb Weston is closer to $6.45 billion, so this remains a meaningful player in the category, but not the only major competitor.
One number matters here: management has been targeting at least $250 million in cost savings, and Starboard reportedly thinks the number should be higher. In a mature food business, that kind of savings can improve profit faster than waiting for demand to accelerate.
Next, watch how many pounds of fries the company sells, what prices it can hold, and whether management gets more aggressive on restructuring or asset sales. If sales stabilize, activist pressure may prove helpful. If not, pressure on management and the board is likely to increase.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
This is a turnaround story. What could go right is straightforward: cleaner operations, steadier restaurant demand, and better profitability. What could go wrong is just as clear: weak traffic, more discounting, and activists pushing bigger changes before the core business is ready.
