Good Morning Investors!!! The big focus today is “rates are back on the mic” after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve chair (pending confirmation), nudging yields higher and stocks a bit lower. At the same time, gold and silver took the elevator down, and gold miners felt it even more, so we are watching if this turns into a quick shakeout or a longer slump. Add a weekend government shutdown headline, plus today’s Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and key earnings like Disney, and you have a market that is wide awake before breakfast. We also spotlight Alibaba’s big push to grow its Qwen artificial intelligence (AI) app, because the AI land grab keeps getting louder.
Key Market DriversWarsh pick puts rates back in the driver’s seat: Stocks ended Friday lower after President Trump named Kevin Warsh as his pick to lead the Federal Reserve (Fed – the U.S. central bank). The Dow fell about 0.4%, the S&P 500 slipped about 0.4%, and the Nasdaq slid close to 1%. Many traders see Warsh as hawkish (more willing to keep rates high to fight inflation), which helped push bond yields up. The Fed held its rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, so a new chair’s tone can move mortgages, stocks, and the dollar. 
30 Year Mortgage Rate
Gold and silver hit the trapdoor, and markets flinch: Gold and silver kept sliding again early Monday after Friday’s gut-punch move. Early Monday, spot gold was in the mid-$4,700s per ounce and silver in the low-$80s, while oil was down about 5% on signs of easing U.S.-Iran tensions. Part of the pressure is coming from CME’s announced margin hikes on metal futures—effective after today’s close—which can force leveraged traders to post more cash or cut positions. When folks sell to raise cash, they may sell other stuff too, so the fear can spread into stock futures and overseas shares. Shutdown headlines meet a jam-packed week of data and earnings: Parts of the U.S. government shut down over the weekend after lawmakers missed a funding deadline. Leaders in Congress say they expect a short shutdown, but even a brief one can slow permits, pay, and paperwork, which is not great for business mood. This week also brings heavy-hitter reports like the monthly jobs report and new factory survey numbers, plus a wave of big-company earnings. Investors will listen for clues on artificial intelligence (AI) (smart software that learns) spending and hiring, because both can sway profits and the Fed’s next move. |
Thoughts from InvestorsGrow:
Today’s big data point is the ISM Manufacturing PMI. It is a survey where factory managers say if things are getting better or worse. Above 50 means more say “up” than “down.” A higher number can push bond yields (the interest rate investors demand) up, which can lean on pricey growth stocks.
Tomorrow’s JOLTS report is the job market’s “help wanted” sign count. If openings stay high, it can hint that firms still need workers, which can keep wage pressure warm. That can make the Fed less eager to cut rates. If openings fall, markets may start pricing in more rate cuts.
On earnings, Disney is a quick read on the consumer, while Palantir and AMD are a peek at AI spending. In earnings season, guidance (what leaders expect next) often moves stocks more than the last quarter did. So listen for the “what’s next” part, not just the score.
Gold Miners and Royalty Firms
Gold miners turn rocks into revenue, and royalty firms get a cut without running the mine. You already saw gold and silver do a belly-flop, and miner stocks often swing even more. The VanEck Gold Miners exchange traded fund (GDX) dropped about 11% last week, so nerves are high.
The big driver is rates and fast selling. When the 10-year Treasury yield rises, gold can look less appealing because it pays no interest. Futures margin (cash you must post to hold a trade) also rose, which can trigger forced selling. With earnings ahead, guidance (what leaders expect next) may matter more than any one day of metal prices.
Newmont Corporation (NEM):
Newmont mines gold and some copper across several regions. Scale helps it fund projects, but big mines can hiccup. It reports Feb 19 after close, and investors will watch costs and 2026 plans.
Barrick Mining Corporation (B):
Barrick is a global gold miner with a growing copper arm. It stands out for long-life “tier-one” assets (big, low-cost mines) and a Nevada joint venture. Barrick reports Feb 5 before the open, and copper updates can move the stock.
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV):
Franco-Nevada is a royalty and streaming company, meaning it gets paid a slice of mine revenue or metal output. Since it does not run mines, it can face less day-to-day cost risk. It reports year-end results March 10 after close, and new deals are the headline.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Watch the 10-year Treasury yield first. Higher yields often cool gold demand, which can drag miners too. On earnings calls, track all-in sustaining costs (AISC – the cost per ounce to keep mines running) and production volumes. Red flag: if costs climb while gold stays flat or slips, profits can shrink fast. If yields rise while AISC climbs, expect miners to lag.
Alibaba (BABA)
Alibaba is a huge online shopping and cloud computing company in China. Think of it as a mix of a mega mall, a delivery network, and a big “rent-a-computer” service for other firms. It runs shopping apps like Taobao and Tmall, plus a cloud unit that sells computing power and tools to build apps.
Over the weekend, Alibaba said it will spend about 3 billion yuan (around $431 million) to boost use of its Qwen app, which is built on AI. The plan starts Feb 6 and leans on Lunar New Year-style “red envelopes,” which are promo gifts that can feel like free money in your pocket. Rival firms are running their own promos too, so this is shaping up like a holiday coupon battle, with robots.
Why it matters is simple: user growth in AI apps is turning into a land grab. If people try Qwen and stick with it, Alibaba can sell more cloud services to firms that want to build on that tech. Here is the plain-English data point: in its last reported quarter, Alibaba said cloud revenue grew 34% from a year earlier, which shows real demand even before this new promo push. Next up, watch if the company shares clear signs that Qwen users keep coming back after the promos end.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
This is Alibaba paying up front to win mindshare, like handing out samples at a busy grocery store and hoping you buy the jumbo box later. For everyday investors, the key question is whether Qwen becomes “sticky,” meaning people use it after the freebies stop. If cloud growth stays strong and promo spending does not crush profits, that is a healthy combo. Red flag: endless discount wars that boost users but drain cash.
