Good Morning Investors!!! Markets are tiptoeing toward Friday’s jobs report, with economists looking for about 60,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate near 4.5%. At the same time, the Supreme Court may soon rule on a tariff case that could swing costs for import-heavy firms and even nudge bond yields. We also shine a light on solar stocks, where rates and policy can act like a dimmer switch, and we zoom in on Eli Lilly’s $1.2B deal for Ventyx, a bet on what comes after today’s blockbuster meds.
Key Market DriversJobs report jitters: Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) fell 0.34% Wednesday. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6% and Europe dipped overnight, as traders waited on Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (monthly jobs count). The warm-up was soft: job openings fell to 7.146 million and a private payroll report showed 41,000 jobs. That mix makes it hard to guess the next move from the Federal Reserve (Fed) (U.S. central bank). The 10-year Treasury yield (rate on 10-year U.S. debt) hovered near 4.15% Thursday morning, and that rate nudges stocks and home loans. 
S&P 500 1-8-2026 – 1 year price chart
Tariff ruling countdown: The U.S. Supreme Court may rule as soon as Friday on whether the president can use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) (1977 emergency economic sanctions law) to set tariffs (taxes on imports) without Congress. Betting markets put the odds of the tariffs surviving at about 30%. If the tariffs get tossed, investors expect refund checks (to the U.S. company that paid the tariff) that could total $150 billion to $200 billion, which may give retailers and consumer firms a boost. But losing that tariff cash can widen the budget gap and push Treasury yields up, which tends to weigh on stocks. AI takes the wheel again: Big Tech got back in the driver’s seat on Wednesday. The Nasdaq ended up 0.16% even as the broad market slipped, helped by gains in artificial intelligence (AI) leaders. At the same time, some memory chip names gave back gains, reminding us this ride has potholes. Why you should care: Tech is a huge slice of many index funds, so a small swing can move your whole portfolio. Stocks also look pricey, with the S&P 500 near 22 times expected earnings, meaning you pay about $22 for $1 of profit. Earnings season will test that math. Oil bounces on sanctions: Oil prices perked up Thursday after two down days. Brent was around $60.55 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate Oil was near $56.57 as of early this morning. Traders pointed to Russia sanctions talk and fresh moves around Venezuelan oil shipments. For investors, oil is like a spice: a little can warm profits, too much can burn the budget. Higher crude can lift energy stocks but it can also push gas prices up and keep inflation sticky. |
Thoughts from InvestorsGrow:
Tomorrow’s jobs report is the main event. Nonfarm Payrolls is the headline, but the market also cares about wages and the unemployment rate. The early guess is about +60K jobs with unemployment near 4.5%. If the report comes in hot, Treasury yields can pop and stocks can cool.
If the report comes in soft, stocks may cheer at first because it can mean lower rates later. But there is a catch. Too soft can feel less like “rate cuts soon” and more like “uh oh, growth is slowing.”” That is why traders can react in both directions even to “good” news.
Housing starts and permits are the rate-sensitive cousin of the jobs report. If home building is still moving, it hints the economy has some bounce left. If it slumps, it can be a sign higher borrowing costs are doing their job. The Michigan report is the vibes check, and the inflation expectations line is the one that can turn a calm morning into a spicy one.
Solar
Solar is more than roof tiles. The industry includes panels and inverters (box that turns solar power into usable power), plus batteries. A simple tracker is the Exchange-traded fund (ETF) Invesco Solar ETF (TAN). TAN closed near $50.47 on Wednesday, about 2% above a week ago.
Solar projects need lots of up-front cash, so interest rates can speed them up or slow them down. Policy is the other big lever, since tax credits and import rules can change costs fast. Right now, U.S. factory build-outs and growing battery demand are colliding with cheap global supply, which can squeeze prices and profits.
First Solar (FSLR):
First Solar makes panels mainly for big utility projects and uses thin-film tech, not the standard silicon kind. It beat quarterly sales forecasts recently but cut its full-year outlook after customer terminations tied to a major contract dispute. More U.S. capacity is planned for late 2026, but the key risk is more order cuts.
Enphase Energy (ENPH):
Enphase sells microinverters that let each panel work on its own, which can help on shaded or tricky roofs. It topped profit forecasts last quarter, but warned tariffs can dent margins and its next-quarter revenue guide was light. If loan rates fall and home solar demand returns, that could help.
Canadian Solar (CSIQ):
Canadian Solar is a global panel maker with a fast-growing battery storage arm. In its latest quarter, revenue was about $1.5 billion and gross margin (profit after direct costs) beat its own guide, helped by storage sales. The watch-out is global oversupply that can keep panel prices low.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Solar is a rates-and-rules story, so it can move fast on news. If you want broad exposure, an ETF can be a calmer first step than a single stock.
Eli Lilly (LLY)
Eli Lilly (LLY) is one of the biggest drug makers in the United States (U.S.). It sells meds for diabetes, weight loss, cancer, and immune system disease, and it spends a lot on research to find the next big hit. When people talk about “big pharma,” Lilly is the one wearing the name tag.
In the past 24 hours, Lilly agreed to buy Ventyx Biosciences (VTYX), a small biotech, meaning a drug research company. Ventyx is working on pill drugs for gut and immune diseases like Crohn’s and ulcerative colitis. Lilly will pay $14 per share in cash, about $1.2 billion total, and the deal is set to close in the first half of 2026 if approvals come through.
Why it matters: Lilly’s top sellers today are tied to diabetes and weight loss, and investors want to know what comes next. This deal adds more “shots on goal” in inflammation, which is a huge market, but early science can miss. Next up, watch for trial updates from Ventyx’s key programs and any change to the closing timeline.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Lilly is using today’s cash cow to buy tomorrow’s growth. That can be smart, since one great new drug can keep sales rolling for years. The red flags are simple: trial results can disappoint, and deals can take longer than a long line at the motor vehicle office. If you follow Lilly, keep an eye on the Ventyx trial updates and how disciplined Lilly stays with deal spending.
