Good Morning Investors!!! A ceasefire framework is on the table, a deadline is ticking, and markets opened this Monday morning caught between hope and skepticism. Pakistan delivered a formal peace proposal to Washington and Tehran over the weekend, but Iran has already said it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz for a temporary deal, and Trump has set a new hard deadline of Tuesday at 8 PM ET. Meanwhile, the March jobs report landed on Good Friday while markets were closed, meaning today is the first session where equities can actually price in 178,000 new payrolls against a consensus of just 59,000. And if geopolitics and labor data were not enough, SpaceX quietly filed for what could be the largest IPO in history, targeting a $75 billion raise and a $1.75 trillion valuation before a single page of financials has been made public.
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Key Market Drivers
A ceasefire clock is ticking, and markets are listening: A Pakistani-brokered peace framework called the “Islamabad Accord” has been delivered to both Washington and Tehran, proposing an immediate halt to hostilities and a 15-to-20-day window to negotiate a broader settlement. Pakistan’s army chief spent the night on the phone with US Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Iran’s foreign minister, according to Reuters. That round-the-clock diplomacy has given futures a slight lift this morning, with investors hopeful that five weeks of war-driven volatility could finally have an off-ramp. The optimism comes with a giant asterisk. Iran said it reviewed the proposal but will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil flows, in exchange for a “temporary” deal. Meanwhile, Trump has set a new hard deadline of Tuesday at 8 PM ET, warning of strikes on Iranian energy and transport infrastructure if no deal is reached. Axios also reported that a limited agreement within 48 hours looks unlikely. Oil prices, which had settled near $112 a barrel on Thursday, pulled back toward $110 this morning on the ceasefire possibility, but remain extremely sensitive to any headline either way. The next check is simple: Tuesday at 8 PM ET. Whatever happens then, or does not happen, will move markets immediately.  S&P 500 1 year chart, April 6, 2026 The jobs report nobody got to react to: The March employment situation report landed on Good Friday, when US stock markets were closed. That means today is the first regular session where equities can fully price in a number that dramatically beat expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS – the government agency that tracks jobs and wages) reported that the US economy added 178,000 nonfarm payrolls (jobs added outside of farming) in March. Economists had expected just 59,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. Here is the catch. A big chunk of the March bounce was a mechanical snap-back from February, when a healthcare workers’ strike caused payrolls to fall 133,000. In fact, healthcare alone accounted for 76,000 of March’s gains, largely from physicians’ office workers returning from that strike. Longer-term signals are less cheery: long-term unemployment has risen by 322,000 over the past year, and the three-month average for job gains sits around 68,000, well below healthy historical norms. Wages rose just 0.2% for the month, the softest annual pace since May 2021. For the Federal Reserve (the Fed), the number likely cements a hold on interest rates at the April 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC – the Fed’s interest-rate-setting body) meeting. Watch ISM Services PMI at 10 AM ET today for the first real-time read on whether the economy held up in March. Oil’s wild week, and who wins or loses from here: Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, settled near $112 a barrel at Thursday’s close, up roughly $41 compared to a year ago. WTI crude (West Texas Intermediate – the main North American benchmark) actually briefly traded at a premium to Brent, a rare quirk that reflects tight domestic supply concerns. The driver is straightforward: the Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted by the war, and while a coordinated release of strategic reserves helped cap the spike somewhat, supply anxiety is very much alive. This morning, oil dipped toward $110 on ceasefire hopes, but the range has been wide and moves fast on headlines. High oil has a clear set of winners and losers. Energy producers, refiners, and oilfield services companies generally benefit when crude stays elevated. Airlines, trucking firms, chemical companies, and anyone who ships goods, think of nearly every retailer, face a direct hit to their costs. One investment data point worth watching: oil’s surge has pushed the ISM Manufacturing Prices Index to 78.3, the highest reading since June 2022, meaning factories are already paying more for inputs. If oil stays above $100, that inflationary pressure will eventually show up in the prices consumers pay. Watch Tuesday evening’s deadline closely because a ceasefire and Hormuz reopening would likely send crude sharply lower, which changes the calculus for both energy stocks and the broader inflation outlook. SpaceX quietly fires the starting gun on the biggest IPO in history: On April 1, SpaceX confidentially filed for an initial public offering (IPO – when a private company sells shares to the public for the first time) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC – the federal agency that oversees securities markets). The target: a $1.75 trillion valuation and a raise of approximately $75 billion. To put that in context, Saudi Aramco’s 2019 IPO, previously the largest in history, raised around $29 billion. SpaceX would more than double that with a single listing. A confidential filing means SpaceX’s financials are not public yet. The company must release a full prospectus at least 15 days before beginning its IPO roadshow, with the public S-1 expected in late April or May and a Nasdaq listing targeted for June. The company, which merged with Musk’s xAI in February at a combined $1.25 trillion valuation, reportedly plans to allocate up to 30% of shares to retail investors, roughly triple the Wall Street standard. Starlink, its satellite internet service, generated over $10 billion in revenue in 2025. For new investors, the key question is not whether SpaceX is remarkable, it clearly is, but whether $1.75 trillion is the right price before anyone has seen the actual financials. The public S-1 is the number one catalyst to watch, likely in late April or May. |
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LNG Exporters
When engineers talk about a “chokepoint,” they mean a narrow passage where everything that matters must flow through. Right now, one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints is closed. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway separating Iran and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG – natural gas chilled into liquid form for ocean shipping) once flowed, has been shut to nearly all commercial traffic since the war began. And the disruption did not stop there. Iranian attacks also knocked out roughly 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity, damage that engineers estimate will take three to five years to repair. Qatar was the world’s second-largest LNG exporter. That is a lot of gas that suddenly has nowhere to go from.
Enter the United States. The US became the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2024, and in 2025 it exported a record 111 million metric tons, the first country ever to cross that mark. Now, with the Middle East supply route effectively severed, US Gulf Coast terminals are running at full throttle. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to almost all commercial traffic, and given that 20% of the world’s LNG flowed through the Strait prior to the war, investors are pricing in a premium for US LNG producers. Goldman Sachs estimates LNG margins are running roughly 200% higher on average for 2026 through 2028 compared to the prior period. The firm expects the disruption to last through at least 2027.
The First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG)) tracks producers and exporters across the natural gas value chain. It returned approximately +27% year to date through mid-March 2026, compared to the S&P 500’s low-single-digit gain over the same period. That performance gap tells you where the money has been moving.
Cheniere Energy (NYSE: LNG):
Cheniere is America’s largest LNG exporter, operating two major terminals: Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. It generates most of its revenue through long-term contracts on a fixed and variable fee structure, while also selling uncontracted LNG to customers on a short-term or spot basis. That mix of contracted stability plus spot upside is exactly the combination investors prize right now. The stock closed at $281.16 on April 2, up nearly 2% on the day, and has gained roughly 45% year to date. Citigroup raised its price target to $330, reaffirming a buy rating on April 2.
Venture Global (NYSE: VG):
Venture Global owns, develops, and operates LNG production facilities on the US Gulf Coast, with projects including Calcasieu Pass, Plaquemines, and CP2. Think of it as the growth-stage counterpart to Cheniere’s more established utility-like profile. In 2025, Venture Global’s revenue reached $13.77 billion, an increase of 177% compared to the prior year. Venture Global stands to benefit materially from the Strait of Hormuz closure, with spot LNG exposure driving near-term EBITDA upside. The stock’s 52-week range spans from $5.72 to $19.50, which tells you this one has had quite a ride. JPMorgan raised its price target to $19 from $11 on March 27.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
The single biggest macro driver for US LNG exporters is the spot LNG price, which surged to around $21.65 per million British thermal units (mmbtu – the standard energy unit for gas pricing) in Asia during March. The two KPIs (key performance indicators – the numbers analysts watch most closely) to track are: contracted versus uncontracted cargo volume (more spot exposure means bigger gains when prices spike) and EBITDA margin (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization – a measure of operating profitability). The red flag is obvious: a ceasefire and a reopened Strait of Hormuz would likely send spot prices sharply lower, and these stocks would follow. If diplomacy stalls and the disruption persists through summer, the supply squeeze tightens further and these companies collect the premium.
Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX)
Neurocrine Biosciences makes prescription drugs for brain and hormone disorders. Think of it like a specialist repair shop for body signals, when the brain or glands send the wrong message, Neurocrine tries to tune it back toward normal.
Neurocrine agreed to buy Soleno Therapeutics for $53 a share in cash, a $2.9 billion deal. The prize is Vykat XR, the first and only FDA-approved treatment for hyperphagia (extreme, persistent hunger) in Prader-Willi syndrome. Soleno shares jumped more than 30% in premarket trading.
NBIX is up about 22% over the last year and about 34% over five years. That says investors respect Neurocrine’s execution, but they still want proof that the next growth chapter can last.
That proof matters because Ingrezza still supplied $2.51 billion of Neurocrine’s $2.83 billion in 2025 net product sales. Instead of taking on Lilly’s Zepbound or Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy head-on with an unproven obesity drug, Neurocrine is buying a smaller, already approved asset. Vykat XR brought in $190 million in its launch year, so this is meaningful, but not story-changing on day one.
The number investors will keep circling is the $450 million sales estimate for Vykat XR this year. That matters because Neurocrine is paying $2.9 billion in cash, so the drug needs to keep adding patients fast enough to justify the price.
Next up, watch the tender offer and HSR review, Vykat XR uptake, and what management says on the next earnings call. If Vykat XR keeps ramping and the deal closes on time, diversification gets easier. If not, this can start looking like an expensive detour.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway: Neurocrine is buying a real product and a new growth lane, not just a science project. The upside is cleaner diversification beyond Ingrezza and a longer runway if Vykat XR becomes standard care in this niche. The risk is simple too: if growth slows, a $2.9 billion check will look heavy in a hurry.
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