Oil is back in the driver’s seat this morning, with Brent crude jumping back above $100 as the Iran conflict kept supply fears alive and pushed volatility higher. At the same time, firmer payroll, retail sales, and factory price data helped lift Treasury yields, which is making the inflation picture feel sticky again just as mortgage rates bite harder. That leaves tomorrow’s jobs report as the next real test, with investors looking for proof the economy still has some cushion, even if the full stock-market reaction may have to wait until Monday.
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Key Market Drivers
Oil snapped back, hard: As we noted yesterday, oil had finally cooled. That relief did not survive the night: Brent crude was up to about $109 a barrel, while the CBOE Volatility Index rose to 27.53. The turn came after Trump said the US would keep hitting Iran for the next two to three weeks, which told markets the supply risk is still here and the end date is still fuzzy. That matters because oil near $109 hits more than gas pumps. It tends to help energy producers, but it squeezes airlines, shippers, and other fuel heavy businesses, while also making it harder for the Federal Reserve to sound relaxed about inflation. Keep an eye on Brent holding above $105 and on any verified sign that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is improving. 
Brent Oil 1yr Chart – April 2, 2026
The data looked sturdy, but the price tags did too: The 10-year Treasury yield held around 4.35% after the 8:30 AM ET releases, and the new numbers did not give rate-cut hopes much relief. Weekly jobless claims fell to 202,000, below the 212,000 forecast, while the February trade deficit widened to $57.3 billion from a revised $54.7 billion in January. Add that to Wednesday’s Automatic Data Processing (ADP – payroll processor) report showing 62,000 new private jobs and 0.6% retail sales growth vs 0.5% expected, and the message is still that the economy has some pulse, even as oil makes the inflation backdrop worse. That is not a comfortable mix for the prices investors pay for future earnings. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM – factory survey group) said March manufacturing activity rose to 52.7, but the prices paid index jumped to 78.3, the highest since June 2022, and this morning’s lower claims number only reinforced the idea that demand has not rolled over yet. This tends to pressure growth stocks, housing names, and smaller firms that need cheaper financing. The next tell is Friday’s jobs report at 8:30 AM ET, especially whether payroll growth can beat the roughly 60,000 forecast without a rise in the 4.4% unemployment rate. Spring housing just got pricier: Housing is now feeling the rate move in plain English. The average 30 year fixed mortgage rate jumped 14 basis points, or 0.14 percentage point, last week to 6.57%, its highest since August, while refinancing applications fell 17.3% and purchase applications slipped 2.6%. That is not a headline traders can shrug off in the middle of spring selling season. Why the jump? Lenders key off Treasury yields, and those yields rose as oil revived inflation fears and Wednesday’s data cooled hopes for quick rate cuts. This tends to hit homebuilders, mortgage lenders, and housing linked retailers first, because monthly payments move faster than wages. The next check is simple: watch whether the 10 year stays above 4.35% and whether builder shares keep lagging after the open. Europe is repricing the war all over again: Overnight, Europe stopped buying the easy peace story. Europe’s STOXX 600 stock index was down 1.0% to 591.68, technology shares were off nearly 3%, and Air France and Lufthansa were each down more than 3.7% as oil jumped back above $100. Yesterday’s relief rally looked a lot less convincing once the speech ended. This is more than a regional wobble. Traders are now pricing at least three quarter point hikes from the European Central Bank by year end, which can keep global bond yields firm, support the dollar, and pressure US multinationals through weaker overseas demand and rougher currency math. Keep an eye on fresh ECB comments and the bank’s April 30 meeting, because Europe is quickly becoming a second inflation front. |
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US Cannabis
US cannabis is still a weird market. Many states allow sales, but federal rules keep taxes and banking tougher than in most consumer businesses. The AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis exchange traded fund (ETF) rose about 3% from March 26 to April 1. That move came while investors were still watching federal rule changes and digesting late February earnings.
The current driver is execution. Moving cannabis to a less restrictive federal category could ease the tax burden, but it will not magically fix banking, and recent results show cash flow and margin control matter just as much as headlines out of Washington. In plain English, this group is shifting from story stocks to “show me the money” stocks.
• Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF): Green Thumb makes branded cannabis products and sells them through its RISE Dispensaries chain. That retail plus brand mix gives it more control over pricing and shelf space than a pure wholesaler. Its late February report showed fourth quarter revenue up 5.7%, despite price pressure.
• Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF): Trulieve is strongest in Florida and handles growing, processing, and selling much of its own product in house. That can help protect margins when pricing gets rough. Its latest results showed record cash flow and a 60% gross margin.
• Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF): Curaleaf is the useful global angle here. It combines a broad US footprint with a growing international business, and it reported $51 million of international revenue in the fourth quarter. That second growth lane matters if the US market stays crowded and promotional.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Watch interest rates, because this industry still pays dearly for capital. The two key numbers to track are same store sales (sales at existing dispensaries) and gross margin (profit left after direct product costs). The red flag is falling shelf prices. If same store sales flatten while gross margin slips, expect the bounce to get smoky in a bad way.
Intel (INTC)
Intel designs chips for PCs and servers, and it owns big factories. Think of it as a restaurant that writes the menu and runs the kitchen.
In the last 24 hours, Intel said it will pay $14.2 billion to buy back Apollo’s 49% stake in Fab 34, its Ireland chip factory. Shares rose 8.84% Wednesday to $48.03 after Intel said the move should help profit and make it look safer to lenders from 2027 onward.
The stock is up about 118% from April 1, 2025, but still down about 26% from April 1, 2021. That says the turnaround story is back, but the market remembers how much Intel lost.
INTC 1yr Chart – April 2, 2026
The rebound did not come out of nowhere. Artificial intelligence (AI) data centers still need plenty of central processing units (CPUs, the main computing chips), not just the graphics chips grabbing headlines, and Intel said earlier this year that demand was outrunning supply. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is the clearest CPU rival, while Nvidia still sets the pace in AI hardware.
Intel is also bigger by sales than many newer investors might guess. It posted $52.9 billion of 2025 revenue versus AMD’s $34.6 billion. But Intel’s 34.5% adjusted gross margin guide for Q1 matters more, because gross margin is the slice left after making chips, and that slice is still thin.
Next up, watch Intel’s April 23 earnings, whether supply improves in Q2 as management expects, and whether 18A, its next generation manufacturing process, wins more confidence. If margins and supply improve together, the Fab 34 buyback gets easier to defend. If not, the new debt becomes the louder problem.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
What’s really going on is simple: Intel is trying to turn a better stock story into a real business comeback. The upside is stronger CPU demand, better supply, and a bigger share of the profits from a factory it now fully owns. The risks are thin margins, fierce competition, and the chance that debt shows up before the payoff does.
