Good Morning Investors!!! Wall Street got a full-blown relief rally after the US-Iran ceasefire sent oil tumbling and knocked a major inflation fear off the table, giving both stocks and bonds room to breathe. That shift still matters beyond one big up day, but this morning’s PCE report did not hand the Federal Reserve an outright win: February PCE rose 0.4% from January and 2.8% from a year earlier, while core PCE also rose 0.4% on the month and 3.0% year over year. In other words, inflation was still sticky before the full impact of March’s energy shock, which is why Friday’s CPI report remains the more important next test for rate-cut hopes. Delta’s strong quarter added fuel to the rebound in travel stocks, while Meta’s latest artificial intelligence push reminded investors that the race for the next big tech profit pool is still very much on.
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Key Market Drivers
Peace talks send stocks flying: Wall Street rallied hard on Wednesday after President Trump announced a two-week US-Iran ceasefire, lifting hopes that the worst-case energy shock might ease. The S&P 500 jumped 2.5% to 6,782.81, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,325 points. Oil prices initially plunged on the headline, but by Thursday morning that relief was already being tested as crude rebounded and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained heavily constrained. The market message was clear: investors were willing to price in de-escalation, but not a full return to normal. The sudden crash in crude left oil hovering around $93 early this morning and removed a massive dark cloud over Wall Street. Investors had spent the last month terrified that an energy supply shock would trigger a new wave of inflation. With that immediate threat fading, buyers rushed right back into riskier assets. The next key test is whether this fragile truce holds and commercial tankers actually resume their routes through the strait.  Crude Oil 1 Year Chart Bond markets breathe a sigh of relief: The oil drop briefly pulled Treasury yields lower on Wednesday, with the 10-year yield falling toward 4.26%. But by Thursday morning yields were back around 4.29% as traders questioned how durable the ceasefire really is. The new 8:30 data kept that caution in place. February PCE rose 0.4% month over month and 2.8% year over year, while core PCE also rose 0.4% on the month and 3.0% from a year earlier, reinforcing the view that inflation was already sticky before the latest oil shock. Initial jobless claims rose to 219,000, but continuing claims fell to 1.794 million, so the labor-market signal was softer on the surface without pointing to a clear breakdown. Rather than assuming the Federal Reserve is back on an easy path toward rate cuts, investors are now likely to treat Friday’s CPI report as the bigger test. Lower yields provide immediate benefits across the broader economy. They make borrowing cheaper for companies, offer some relief for homebuyers, and make safe government bonds less tempting compared with stocks. But this morning’s numbers were more mixed than outright soothing. PCE came in essentially as expected and jobless claims rose only modestly, which keeps the Federal Reserve in wait-and-see mode and leaves Friday’s CPI report as the real check on whether the cooling-inflation story can hold. Delta posts record revenue as oil headwinds fade: Delta Air Lines reported a strong quarter, posting adjusted March-quarter earnings of $0.64 per share on $14.2 billion in adjusted operating revenue, and it guided to low-teens revenue growth in the June quarter. The stock and the broader airline group got an added lift from Wednesday’s oil selloff, since fuel is one of the industry’s biggest costs. But this is not an all-clear for the sector. Oil rebounded Thursday morning, and Delta itself said higher fuel costs are still a major pressure point even with strong travel demand and support from its refinery (Yes, Delta owns a refinery). Airline stocks exploded higher yesterday because fuel is one of their biggest expenses. Companies in the travel sector were facing severe profit margin pressure from the recent spike in oil. The combination of healthy consumer demand and sudden relief on fuel costs creates a powerful tailwind heading into the busy summer travel season. Wall Street will now watch whether Delta can maintain its target of low-teens revenue growth for the second quarter. Meta sparks a new AI chapter: Meta Platforms shares rallied 6.5% to close at $612.42 after the company unveiled its most advanced artificial intelligence project yet. The tech giant introduced Muse Spark, a natively multimodal reasoning model developed by its new Superintelligence Labs division. This marks a major shift away from Meta’s previous open-source approach to a more guarded, closed system. The artificial intelligence arms race is moving beyond basic text generation. Muse Spark is a multimodal reasoning model, and Meta is positioning it as a foundational upgrade to the Meta AI app and website before rolling it out across products like Instagram, WhatsApp, Facebook, Messenger, and its AI glasses. The real business question is whether stronger in-house AI tools deepen engagement and make Meta’s ecosystem even harder for advertisers and users to leave. |
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Digital Advertising
Digital advertising is the invisible engine of the internet. It matches your eyeballs with brands eager to sell you things.
Right now the sector is going through a massive artificial intelligence revolution. Performance is splitting sharply between giant walled ecosystems and independent players. Investors often track the space using an exchange traded fund (ETF) like the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLC). That fund has recently traded around $114.
AppLovin (APP):
This mobile app marketing platform acts as a lucrative toll bridge for digital discovery. The company uses complex algorithms to match users with highly targeted ads. AppLovin’s fourth-quarter 2025 results were huge, with revenue of $1.745 billion and an 84% adjusted EBITDA margin. That kind of operating leverage is rare, which is why investors keep treating the name as one of the most important software-and-ad-tech hybrids in the market.
The Trade Desk (TTD):
This independent platform allows ad buyers to purchase campaigns across connected television and retail websites. The company positions itself as a transparent alternative to massive tech monopolies. Shares slid 6.8% on Tuesday following sudden executive departures. CEO Jeff Green stepped in shortly after with a personal stock purchase of roughly $148 million to reassure investors. The underlying business remains strong after posting $847 million in late 2025 revenue.
Meta Platforms (META):
This giant controls enormous portions of global ad budgets through Facebook and Instagram. Meta has unmatched capital to build customized marketing tools. Yesterday the company officially launched a highly efficient new artificial intelligence model called Muse Spark. The stock jumped 6.5% as investors cheered the new tool.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
The biggest macroeconomic indicator for digital advertising is the health of the US consumer. Companies cut marketing budgets first when a recession looms. Analysts track specific metrics like Cost Per Mille (CPM, or the price of a thousand views) and the ratio of customer lifetime value to acquisition cost. The main red flag is shifting data privacy regulations from operating system gatekeepers. If consumer spending remains resilient, then top ad platforms will likely see their profit margins expand.
Constellation Brands (STZ)
Constellation Brands produces some of the most recognizable premium beer, wine, and spirits sold in the US, with flagship names like Modelo, Corona, and Pacifico anchoring the portfolio.
The company reported its fourth-quarter earnings after the market closed yesterday. While Constellation beat Wall Street estimates with $1.92 billion in sales, shares closed yesterday at $150.26 and hovered near $149 early this morning after management warned about a challenging economic environment.
The stock has shed roughly 11% over the past year and dropped about 26% over the last five years. This steady slide shows that investors are increasingly anxious about shifting consumer drinking habits.
Constellation operates with a market cap of approximately $26 billion, making it much smaller than global brewing giant Anheuser-Busch InBev at roughly $120 billion. Despite the size difference, Constellation dominates the US imported beer market. Its Modelo brand remained the top dollar share gainer in stores last year. However, inflation is finally catching up to premium alcohol buyers.
Investors are closely watching the company’s fiscal 2027 organic net sales guidance of negative 1% to positive 1%. This flat forecast matters because it indicates that even reliable growth engines like premium Mexican imports are feeling the pinch of consumer fatigue.
Wall Street will monitor a major leadership transition on Monday, April 13, when incoming CEO Nicholas Fink takes over from Bill Newlands. If the new leadership can revitalize struggling divisions, then the upcoming July earnings report might offer a summer boost.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
The reality is that consumers are trading down or drinking less as household budgets tighten. The upside is that Constellation still owns the most popular premium beer brands in the country. This positioning offers incredible pricing power when economic clouds part. The risk is that prolonged inflation could turn a temporary dip in premium beer consumption into a permanent shift in consumer behavior.
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