Good Morning Investors!!! Markets woke up in a different world this morning. A last-minute U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement sent global markets into relief mode overnight and knocked WTI crude down roughly 15% into the mid-$90s per barrel. The relief is real, but this is still a pause, not a peace deal, and shipping and energy bottlenecks will not clear overnight. Meanwhile, Delta Air Lines already reported first-quarter results this morning, posting adjusted EPS of $0.64 on $14.2 billion in adjusted operating revenue and guiding to June-quarter EPS of $1.00–$1.50 while declining to update full-year guidance. We have all of that, plus Bill Ackman’s $64 billion bid for Universal Music Group, inside.
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Key Market Drivers
The ceasefire heard ’round the globe: Two months ago, most investors had never thought much about the Strait of Hormuz. Today it’s a key driver to the markets. Late Tuesday night, just under two hours before President Trump’s 8 PM ET deadline, Trump posted on Truth Social agreeing to suspend military operations against Iran for two weeks, contingent on Iran agreeing to reopen the Strait to commercial shipping. Iran’s government confirmed the ceasefire shortly after. The reaction was instant and enormous: global equity futures surged roughly 2.5–3.5% overnight, European stocks opened nearly 4% higher, Asian markets added 5–6%, and the VIX dropped roughly 20%, falling back toward levels last seen before the conflict escalated. The catch? This is a pause, not a peace deal. Iran’s ceasefire statement described the agreement as “not the end of the war,” and the two sides remain far apart on terms. Negotiations are set to begin Friday in Islamabad, brokered by Pakistan. The Strait of Hormuz has been carrying only a fraction of its normal shipping volume since the conflict began, and the physical damage to regional energy infrastructure — plus the backlog of idle tankers — means supply chains won’t snap back overnight. For investors, the overnight move reshuffled the sector scorecard: defense, energy, and safe-haven trades that gained through the crisis are now facing pressure, while travel, retail, and rate-sensitive sectors are catching a bid. Next check: Friday’s opening round of Islamabad peace talks and whether tanker traffic through the Strait actually resumes at scale.  VIX 1 Year Price Chart Oil’s biggest single-night drop in years — but put down the confetti: Crude oil’s overnight move was historic in speed, if not quite in resolution. WTI crude plunged roughly 15–16% overnight to around $95 per barrel, and Brent fell a similar amount. Both moves were among the steepest single-session drops in years. To appreciate the context: WTI had surged more than 70% from its January 1 level through its recent peak as the Hormuz closure kept global supply painfully tight. The Energy Information Administration (EIA — the US government’s energy data arm) called Q1 2026 the largest quarterly oil price increase on an inflation-adjusted basis since 1988, with Brent going from $61 per barrel at year-open to $118 by quarter-end. Even after the overnight drop, though, WTI is still up roughly 40% since January 1. And energy analysts are waving a yellow flag. Qatar’s Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas (LNG) complex — responsible for a large share of global LNG supply — has significant capacity offline, with repairs estimated to take years, not months. Shipping backlogs could persist for weeks. This means the “relief” in energy prices is real and welcome, especially at the gas pump, but it is not the same thing as a return to pre-war energy markets. For investors, the drop in oil is a tailwind for airlines, trucking, consumer staples, and any company with fuel as a major cost. Energy stocks, which had climbed roughly 34% year-to-date, face a two-sided squeeze: lower oil prices compress revenue, and a ceasefire could trigger rotation out of the sector entirely. Next check: The EIA’s next weekly petroleum inventory report, and whether OPEC+ adjusts its production stance ahead of its May meeting. Delta Air Lines drops into the earnings hot seat: Delta Air Lines is no longer just the airline sector’s setup story — it already reported. The company posted adjusted first-quarter EPS of $0.64 on $14.2 billion of adjusted operating revenue, beating profit expectations and showing that demand held up better than many feared even with fuel costs surging. But the real message was the outlook: Delta guided to June-quarter EPS of $1.00–$1.50 on low-teens revenue growth, said it is removing planned capacity growth from the quarter, and declined to update full-year guidance because fuel-price uncertainty remains high. Delta still expects about a $300 million second-quarter benefit from its refinery, but management made clear that fuel is still dictating the pace of the story. Next check: Delta’s 10:00 AM ET conference call and any added color on fare increases, fuel assumptions, and when management may revisit full-year guidance. Bill Ackman makes his $64 billion encore — this time for the catalog: Away from the geopolitics, Tuesday delivered one of the most audacious deal proposals of the year. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square Capital Management offered to acquire Universal Music Group (UMG) — the world’s largest music label, home to Taylor Swift, Drake, Billie Eilish, and Kendrick Lamar — in a cash-and-stock deal worth approximately $64.4 billion. The offer values UMG at 30.40 euros per share, a 78% premium to its closing price on April 2. The deal structure combines $10.85 billion in cash with 0.77 shares of a newly formed company for each UMG share held, and would move UMG’s primary listing from Amsterdam’s Euronext exchange to the New York Stock Exchange. Ackman’s argument is essentially a valuation arbitrage play. UMG currently trades at roughly 22 times earnings; Spotify, which distributes much of the same music, trades at roughly 40 times. Ackman believes a US listing — and the flood of index-fund buying that would follow S&P 500 inclusion — could close that gap. UMG’s board confirmed it received the proposal and will review it, but the non-binding offer still needs a two-thirds shareholder vote to move forward, and the Bolloré family (18% stake) and Tencent (close to 10%) are key swing votes. The deal is expected to close by year-end if approved. A Special Purpose Acquisition Rights Company, or SPARC, is not a traditional blank-check SPAC. The key difference is timing: investors do not commit cash upfront before a target is identified. Instead, they receive rights that can be exercised only after a definitive acquisition agreement is announced and full deal disclosures are available. Simply put, it is Ackman’s attempt to keep the deal flexibility of a SPAC-style vehicle without asking investors to fund the shell in advance. Next check: UMG board’s formal response and any signals from major shareholders about how they plan to vote. |
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Agricultural Chemicals & Fertilizers
You already know the Strait of Hormuz disrupted oil. Here is the story fewer people are talking about: it also disrupted fertilizer markets. Fertilizer production is highly energy-intensive, with natural gas making up as much as 70% of production costs, and roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade passes through Hormuz. Reuters also reports that more than 30% of world nitrogen fertilizer exports, along with key inputs such as sulfur, move through the Strait. When Hormuz closed, it did not just squeeze oil — it also tightened LNG-linked nitrogen supply and blocked key fertilizer shipments just as spring planting ramped up.
That is a lot of pressure hitting a very small window. Spring is when farmers apply the bulk of their nitrogen. There is no make-up date. While fertilizer prices usually are not the top concern of American consumers, they could create issues for the 2026 spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere, which is just now getting started. The disruption has also created a massive tailwind for domestic fertilizer producers, who can now capture huge margin gains thanks to the supply cut-off. North American producers anchored to cheap Henry Hub natural gas are sitting in a structurally advantaged position that their European and Asian rivals simply cannot match right now.
One way to track the whole sector: the VanEck Agribusiness ETF (MOO). MOO seeks to replicate the MVIS Global Agribusiness Index, which tracks companies involved in agri-chemicals, animal health and fertilizers, seeds and traits, farm and irrigation equipment, aquaculture and fishing, livestock, and cultivation. Companies must derive at least 50% of total revenues from agribusiness to be added to the index. Over the past 52 weeks, MOO has traded between a high of $86.56 and a low of $59.58, a range that tells the story of the geopolitical re-rating in one number. Five-day net flows into MOO have reached $84 million, one-month net flows $172 million, and three-month net flows $511 million, reflecting a meaningful rotation into the sector.
CF Industries Holdings (NYSE: CF):
CF is the largest ammonia production network in North America, making nitrogen fertilizers including granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN), and ammonium nitrate, all derived from its base product: ammonia. What makes it the standout in 2026 is geography. With six nitrogen complexes in the United States, two in Canada, and one in the United Kingdom, CF has an average annual capacity of nearly 10.5 million tons on a gross ammonia basis. Its plants run on domestic shale gas, not imported LNG, which is the decisive edge right now. CF posted full-year revenue of $7.08 billion, up 19% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA growing to $2.89 billion from $2.28 billion. In response to the Hormuz crisis, CF delayed a planned maintenance turnaround to supply approximately 100,000 additional tons of granular urea to US customers that would not otherwise have been available for this spring application season. The company also has a longer-term eye on clean energy: its new $4 billion facility will annually produce 1.4 million metric tons of blue ammonia, produced using carbon capture technology.
Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE: NTR):
Canada-based Nutrien is the world’s largest agricultural retailer and a titan in all three major plant nutrients: nitrogen, phosphate, and potash. What sets it apart from pure-play peers is its retail arm: with control of 20% of the potash market and more than 1,500 locations across North America, Nutrien can capture margin regardless of which input price is spiking. Its fertilizer volume has continued rising in recent years, moving from 26.2 million tons in 2023 to over 27.5 million tons last year. Nutrien posted record potash sales volumes of 14.25 million tonnes in 2025 and generated $2.002 billion in free cash flow. Analysts at Wells Fargo and Jefferies recently upgraded NTR from Neutral to Buy, with price targets of $100 and $96, respectively.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
The single macro indicator to watch here is the Henry Hub / European TTF natural gas price spread — the wider that gap, the wider the cost advantage for North American nitrogen producers, and the stronger the earnings tailwind for CF and Nutrien. The two KPIs Wall Street tracks most closely are urea price per ton at benchmark hubs (the main revenue driver) and adjusted EBITDA per ton of product sold (which strips out one-time items to show true margin power). The key red flag: a ceasefire or Hormuz reopening could collapse the global fertilizer price spike rapidly, reversing much of the geopolitical premium baked into these stocks. If the Strait remains disrupted through summer and urea prices hold near recent highs, North American fertilizer producers remain in a strong position. If a resolution comes, watch for a swift pullback.
Levi Strauss & Co. (NYSE: LEVI)
The brand that invented the blue jean is now reinventing itself. Credited with inventing the first pair of blue jeans in 1873, Levi Strauss & Co. designs, markets, and sells apparel and accessories for men, women, and children under the Levi’s, Signature, Denizen, and Beyond Yoga brands. Think of it as a 173-year-old startup — still in denim, but increasingly in your direct-to-consumer (DTC — meaning sales through its own stores and website, cutting out the middleman) checkout cart.
What happened in the last 24 hours: The company posted adjusted earnings per share (EPS — profit divided by shares outstanding) of $0.42, above analysts’ consensus of $0.37, on revenue of $1.74 billion, beating forecasts of $1.65 billion. Shares jumped roughly 6.5% in after-hours trading following the results. Levi also announced that CFO Harmit Singh is set to retire, continuing in his role until a successor is appointed before serving as a special advisor.
Quick stock context: Net revenues rose 14.1% to $1,742.5 million year-over-year. Yet the stock closed Tuesday at $19.65, sitting well below its 52-week high. The one-year chart tells a story of recovery, but the five-year chart still shows a stock that has more ground to reclaim than most investors realize — a reminder that even iconic brands can spend years in the wilderness before finding their footing again.
How we got here: Levi spent years slugging it out with competitors in a crowded wholesale channel, dependent on department stores that were shrinking faster than skinny jeans in a hot dryer. Under CEO Michelle Gass, Levi’s has spent the last two years pivoting toward a DTC-first denim lifestyle brand. Part of that focus meant shedding the Dockers brand in early 2026 to double down on the core Levi’s brand and Beyond Yoga. Its primary rival in the US remains Kontoor Brands (NYSE: KTB), owner of Wrangler and Lee, but Levi’s has pivoted away from the value tier toward “affordable luxury,” leaving mass-market competition to Kontoor and private labels.
The key number investors are watching: DTC net revenues grew 15.7%, reaching 52% of total net revenues — a milestone number. When Levi’s sells through its own stores and website rather than through a retailer, it keeps the markup that would otherwise go to a department store, meaning more profit flows back to the company on every pair sold. DTC comparable sales grew 7%, and DTC comprised 52% of total net revenues. Getting past 50% is the crossing-the-midfield line investors have been waiting for.
What to watch next: Full-year guidance was raised to reported net revenue growth of 5.5%–6.5% and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.42–$1.48. The next earnings report is expected on July 2, 2026. If the tariff environment worsens, guidance could come under pressure — but if the current 10% duty holds rather than rising, analysts estimate it could be a meaningful tailwind to full-year earnings. The CFO succession search is also worth tracking, as leadership transitions in the C-suite can shift investor sentiment quickly.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Levi’s is a brand transformation story wearing a quarterly earnings beat as its outfit. CEO Michelle Gass put it plainly: “Our evolution into a DTC-first denim lifestyle brand is allowing us to capture a much larger addressable market and deliver faster and more consistent growth.” The upside case is straightforward: as DTC mix climbs past 50%, margins should follow, and the raised full-year guidance suggests management has real visibility. The risks are real, though. Operating margin slipped to 11.4% from 12.5% a year ago, reflecting tariff headwinds and higher planned advertising costs, and a CFO departure mid-transformation is never a nothing-burger — even a well-managed one.
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