Good Morning Investors!!! Trade policy, inflation, and AI are the three levers steering this week’s tape. The dollar is on its back foot after Friday’s Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Trump’s emergency tariffs—followed by a weekend pivot to a broader 15% import levy turning trade policy into pure headline risk. At the same time, Friday’s data printed a mixed signal (Q4 GDP cooled to 1.4% annualized while December core PCE ran hotter), keeping investors stuck between “growth slowing” and “inflation sticky.” That mix is pushing money toward hedges (gold higher, yields easing) and keeping volatility in focus ahead of Nvidia’s earnings Wednesday after the close—the market’s clearest read on whether AI infrastructure spending is accelerating or hesitating. Tuesday brings Consumer Confidence and Home Depot; and oil stays a wild card with U.S.–Iran talks Thursday. Inside, we also flag the PC/server setup (HP Tuesday, Dell Thursday) and a fresh activist-driven governance fight at Fortune Brands Innovations that could turn into a noisy catalyst.
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Key Market Drivers
Tariff whiplash hit the dollar, not just the headlines: The U.S. dollar slipped overnight as traders digested the latest trade-policy whiplash, with the euro around $1.1808 and the yen near 154.7 per dollar in early trading. Gold pushed toward the $5,150 area and the 10-year yield eased toward 4.08%—a small but noticeable tilt toward “safety” positioning. Friday’s Supreme Court ruling struck down the administration’s emergency-tariff program, and the White House moved quickly to replace it with a temporary across-the-board import tariff under other trade authority—starting at 10% and lifted to 15% over the weekend. The market’s problem isn’t just the level; it’s the rulebook. If prior collections are ruled unlawful, refund claims could run into the ~$175B+ range (estimates vary), and that kind of legal/administrative clean-up tends to hit importers and exporters first. Today’s tells: any clarity on scope/exemptions, and whether the dollar keeps leaking versus the euro and yen. Growth cooled while inflation ran hot: Friday’s data delivered a mixed signal: Q4 GDP slowed to a 1.4% annualized pace versus roughly 3.0% consensus, while December core PCE inflation ran hotter—up 0.4% month over month (vs. 0.3% expected) and lifting the year-over-year pace to 3.0%. Translation: growth is cooling, but inflation isn’t giving the Fed a clean “all clear.” Slower growth usually argues for lower rates, but hotter inflation argues for higher rates, so investors are stuck in a tug-of-war. The next inflation checkpoints are Friday’s Producer Price Index (Jan PPI at 8:30 AM ET) and then the January PCE report on March 13. 
Gold 1 Year Chart – Feb 23, 2026
Oil keeps one eye on Iran, one on inflation: This morning, Brent crude was ~$71.80 a barrel, essentially flat on the day, and still sitting near six-month highs after last week’s 5%+ jump on Middle East risk headlines. The market’s still pricing a “geopolitics premium” into crude, with the next big checkpoint being the U.S.–Iran talks in Geneva on Thursday, which could either cool tensions (premium fades) or reheat them fast (premium sticks). For investors, the near-term tell is inventories: Wednesday’s EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (10:30 AM ET) is the headline mover, especially the direction of crude stocks, refinery runs, and gasoline and distillate inventories. If oil holds in the low $70s, that’s generally a tailwind for energy producers but a tax on fuel-heavy businesses (airlines, transport, some consumer names), and it can keep the inflation narrative from cooling as quickly as bond bulls would like. Volatility is perking up ahead of Nvidia’s ‘AI report card’: The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) ticked up to about 19.84, suggesting investors are paying a bit more for portfolio ‘insurance.’ Part of that nervous energy is simple math: one company, Nvidia (NVDA), is roughly 8% of the S&P 500, so its earnings can tug the whole market’s mood. Nvidia reports after the close Wednesday, Feb. 25, with its conference call at 5:00 PM ET, and it sits at the center of AI spending. A multiyear chip deal with Meta was floated as potentially worth up to $50 billion by an analyst, and a separate report said Nvidia is nearing a $30 billion investment in OpenAI. Watch guidance for data-center demand, because that can swing tech valuations in a hurry. |
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Computers + Servers
This industry is the “nuts and bolts” of tech: personal computers (PCs – laptops and desktops), servers, and storage. If you want a quick temperature check, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), is a decent proxy. XLK up about 22% over the past year.
Why it matters now is capital expenditures (capex – big-ticket business spending). Companies are buying more servers to run AI, while the PC market is also waking up after a long nap. The wrinkle is rising memory costs, which can boost prices but also squeeze profits.
Dell Technologies (DELL):
Dell sells PCs and big-ticket infrastructure like servers and storage. The swing factor this quarter is the AI server pipeline, listen for orders, backlog, and margin commentary. Dell reports Thursday, Feb. 26, with its conference call at 4:30 PM ET.
HP Inc. (HPQ):
HP is a major PC maker and a printing powerhouse; that printing cash flow can soften PC cycle bumps. HP reports Tuesday, Feb. 24, with its conference call at 5:00 PM ET. The big question is whether business buyers are upgrading, and at what price, especially with higher memory costs pressuring the stack.
Lenovo Group (LNVGY):
Lenovo is the world’s largest PC vendor and also sells servers. It recently warned that the memory-chip shortage is pressuring PC shipments even as AI infrastructure demand grows, so watch how it balances pricing versus volume. They already reported earnings on Feb 12.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Watch the 10-year Treasury yield because higher yields can cool corporate spending and tech valuations. For this space, track PC shipments and server order backlog (orders waiting to ship) to gauge demand momentum. One red flag is demand push-outs, when customers delay deliveries and discounts start to creep in. If yields rise while backlogs shrink, expect hardware stocks to struggle a bit.
Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN)
Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN) sells home basics like faucets (Moen) and security gear like locks (Master Lock). It’s like owning a chunk of the hardware aisle at your local home improvement store.
Over the weekend, activist investor Ed Garden (Garden Investments) built a stake and nominated a slate of directors, arguing the board should run a broader CEO search rather than sticking with its current succession plan. With FBIN’s market cap around $6.5B, that kind of governance fight can get loud and it can move the stock even when the underlying housing tape is quiet.
FBIN is down about 16% over the last year and down about 30% over five years. That kind of chart says investors have been in “prove it” mode.
Fortune Brands – FBIN Forward PE Ratio
The tension comes after a rough stretch for housing-linked names, since higher mortgage rates can delay remodels. FBIN reported roughly $1.1B in Q4 2025 sales (down about 2%–3% year over year) and guided 2026 adjusted EPS to $3.35 to $3.65—so the focus is whether execution (cost actions, mix, and steadier demand) can rebuild confidence fast enough to outpace the governance noise.
Watch for developments ahead of the annual meeting, any settlement signals between the activist and the board, and the CEO transition timeline: Amit Banati is set to become CEO effective May 13, 2026. If management can show margin stabilization and steadier demand before then, the business story gets simpler; if not, the proxy fight risks stealing oxygen from the fundamentals.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
FBIN is a real-products company stuck in a confidence slump, and an activist is trying to force a leadership reset. If housing and repair demand steadies and margins improve, sentiment can recover. If demand stays soft or the governance fight drags on, distraction and missed targets become the risk.
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