Good Morning Investors!!! Oil is back in the driver’s seat, and the bond market is bracing for today’s 8:30 AM ET double feature: Gross Domestic Product (GDP – total economy output) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge). The Federal Reserve (Fed – U.S. central bank) still has the steering wheel, so a hot inflation print can jolt yields and pricey growth stocks, while a cooler one can calm things down. We are also shining a light on private credit through Business Development Company (BDC – public lender to private firms) names, plus a quick read on DoorDash’s post-earnings pop and what it says about growth versus profits.
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Key Market Drivers
Oil is back in the driver’s seat: Oil kept the pedal down overnight, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI – U.S. crude benchmark) around $66.06 a barrel and Brent near $71.39. Both contracts were up about 5% on the week, after Thursday’s surge on fresh fears that U.S.-Iran tensions could turn into supply trouble through the Strait of Hormuz. Why it matters is simple: higher oil can sneak into gasoline, shipping, and airline costs, which can keep inflation feeling sticky and make rate cuts harder to justify. That tends to help energy producers while squeezing consumers and companies with lots of fuel use. Keep an eye on headlines out of Washington and Tehran, plus whether WTI holds above $66 into the weekend. PCE Friday could reset the rate story: Bond traders sent a mixed note Thursday: the 10-year Treasury yield dipped to about 4.075%, while the 2-year ticked up to roughly 3.47%. A drop in weekly jobless claims to 206,000 (vs forecast 225,000) made the labor market look steady, which can give the Federal Reserve room to stay patient on rate cuts. Now the spotlight swings to PCE at 8:30 AM ET, with core PCE forecast to rise 0.3% for the month. A hotter print usually pushes yields up, and that can pressure growth stocks because higher rates raise the “price” investors pay for future earnings. Keep an eye on the 10-year yield and whether it climbs back above 4.10% after the data, plus any Fed chatter that follows. 
S&P 500 1 Year Chart, Feb 20, 2026
Credit nerves met an AI cost squeeze: Private credit (loans made by funds, not banks) got investors’ attention Thursday, when Blue Owl slid about 6% after selling $1.4 billion of assets and limiting withdrawals from one debt fund. Then, after the bell, Akamai dropped nearly 9% on a profit forecast that missed expectations, citing a memory supply squeeze. Translation: when money gets pricier and inputs get scarce, markets suddenly care a lot about who can raise prices. Part of the squeeze traces back to artificial intelligence buildouts, which are gobbling memory chips and pushing some costs higher. That can lift revenue for the right suppliers, but it can also pinch margins for firms that cannot pass costs along, especially if credit is less easy. Keep an eye on whether these jitters spread beyond a few names, and on Wednesday, Feb. 25, when Nvidia reports after the close. The dollar flexed, and the trade numbers helped: The U.S. dollar stayed firm, with the dollar index near 97.88 on Thursday and the euro around $1.1766. The muscle came after the trade deficit jumped to $70.3 billion in December (vs forecast $55.5 billion) as imports surged, plus jobless claims that hinted the economy is not rolling over. A stronger dollar can be a headwind for U.S. firms that sell overseas, because foreign sales translate into fewer dollars, and it can also cool commodity prices. Overnight, markets abroad looked a bit jittery, with Japan down about 1.1% and Hong Kong down roughly 1.1% while South Korea jumped 2.3%. The next check is today’s GDP update and whether the dollar keeps climbing after the 8:30 AM ET data dump. |
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Private Credit and BDCs
Private credit is direct lending to companies outside public markets. One public window into private credit is BDCs, which are public lenders to private firms. BDCs lend to U.S. middle-market borrowers and often pay big dividends because they pass through most of their income.
Many BDC loans are floating-rate, so income moves with short-term rates. That makes Fed expectations a major driver. An exchange-traded fund (ETF) like the VanEck BDC Income ETF (BIZD) is down about 6.9% year to date through Feb. 19, and it sits roughly 25% below its 52-week high.
Ares Capital (ARCC):
ARCC is the largest publicly traded BDC by market value, lending to middle-market firms across many industries. Its edge is scale, which usually means broader deal flow and diversification. It declared a $0.48 dividend for Q1 2026, so watch dividend coverage if rates fall.
Main Street Capital (MAIN):
MAIN focuses on smaller lower middle-market companies and often pairs loans with equity stakes. It is internally managed, which can keep fees lower than many peers. MAIN reports results after the close on Feb. 26, so we will soon get a fresh credit-quality check.
Brookfield Asset Management (BAM):
BAM is a alternative manager with a growing credit platform. Its differentiator is long-term capital and global reach, useful when banks pull back. It posted record 2025 fundraising, raised its dividend 15%, and expects to buy the rest of Oaktree in Q1 2026.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
Watch the 2-year Treasury yield, since it often tracks where investors think the Fed is headed. Two KPIs: net investment income (NII – interest income minus expenses) versus the dividend, and non-accruals (loans not paying). Red flag: non-accruals up while dividend coverage fades. If the 2-year yield falls fast and non-accruals rise, expect BDCs to wobble.
DoorDash (DASH)
DoorDash (DASH) connects customers with restaurants and stores, then coordinates delivery and payments. Think of it like a digital toll booth for local shopping.
In the last 24 hours, DoorDash posted earnings and guidance. The company projected first-quarter marketplace gross order value (GOV – total dollars spent on orders) of $31 billion to $31.8 billion, helping shares jump about 11% in early trading Thursday. A lower adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization forecast of $675 million to $775 million cooled things off, and DASH finished Thursday at $176.19, up 1.62%.
DASH is down about 14% over the past year. Since its December 2020 IPO at $102 a share, the stock is up roughly 73%, which says the market has swung from hype to skepticism and back again.
DoorDash Summary Scores – Feb 20, 2026
The why is a balancing act. Grocery and retail orders are growing, but DoorDash is also spending to defend share versus Uber (UBER) and Instacart (CART). Its forward price-to-earnings ratio (forward P/E – next-year profit multiple) is about 62x, versus roughly 22x for Uber and 15x for Instacart.
That $31 billion to $31.8 billion GOV range is the “cash register total” flowing through the app. If it keeps rising, it is easier to invest and still improve profits; if not, every new initiative gets questioned.
Next up: watch GOV versus guidance, adjusted EBITDA versus expectations, and whether competition turns into a promo war. If GOV stays hot, then steadier earnings get easier; if it cools, margin pressure is the risk.
InvestorsGrow Takeaway:
DoorDash is trying to be the delivery layer for your neighborhood, not just a dinner button. Upside comes from more categories, higher-margin revenue like ads, and repeat ordering habits. Risks are price fights, rising delivery costs, and profits lagging growth longer than investors want.
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